Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, announced a 15% increase in the country’s main cash-transfer programme for poor families and free weight-loss jabs, according to The Guardian. The move has drawn criticism from opponents who argue it is timed to boost Lula’s chances in the upcoming presidential election.

Election Timing Sparks Debate

On 4 October, the leftwing incumbent will face the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, who has gained ground in recent weeks. The increased monthly payment, which rose from about £98 to £113, is set to take effect on 19 October, just before the likely runoff vote on 25 October.

This increase is expected to benefit between 15% and 20% of voters in one of the closest ever presidential races in Latin America’s largest country, while Lula claimed the change was not a new increase, but an adjustment to inflation to “protect the purchasing power of the most vulnerable families.”

However, critics argue the timing of the announcement is politically motivated. Flávio Bolsonaro called it an “act of desperation,” noting polls had shown him gaining ground. The most recent survey released on Thursday night, however, still showed Lula ahead despite a technical tie.

Historical Context of the Programme

Created in 2003 during Lula’s first term, the Bolsa Família programme was a flagship policy that helped lift millions of families out of poverty during his first two terms. Currently, families with an income of up to £32 per person are eligible, covering about 50 million people, or roughly 27 million of voting age.

The programme has long been a point of contention among rightwing politicians. Jair Bolsonaro, for instance, faced similar criticism during his presidency. On the eve of the 2022 election, Bolsonaro announced a 50% increase in the monthly payment, prompting Lula’s campaign to file a case with the electoral court alleging abuse of political power and electoral use of the state machinery.

This has led to a debate over whether Lula is repeating Bolsonaro’s strategy. Journalist Miriam Leitão, writing for O Globo, noted that while both leaders made adjustments out of electoral interest, Lula’s increase is limited to inflation over the past four years, a period with no previous adjustment. She also pointed out that Bolsonaro’s increase had an expiry date at the end of the electoral period, whereas Lula’s is permanent.

Analysis of Electoral Strategies

Victor Escobar, a researcher at the Laboratory of Parties, Elections and Comparative Politics, agreed with this assessment. He noted that Lula, like his predecessor, is being criticised for revealing a package of benefits on the eve of the election. These include the promise of free weight-loss jabs distributed through the public health system. However, he argued that Bolsonaro’s measures were “even more irresponsible from a budgetary point of view.”

In addition to increasing benefits for poor families, Bolsonaro introduced temporary monthly payments of up to £727 for two groups that broadly formed part of his support base—taxi drivers and truck drivers—along with other social benefits whose projected impact on the budget was so large that critics dubbed them the “kamikaze” package.

Escobar acknowledged that Lula’s intention is also electoral. However, he noted that as long as the measures comply with the law, “it’s something entirely expected when we’re talking about an incumbent running for re-election, who will try to use the legal mechanisms available to improve their voting numbers.”

Some electoral law experts have said that an inflation adjustment is not, in principle, prohibited. However, a far-right candidate, the influencer Renan Santos, filed a case with the electoral court seeking to suspend the increase until the president-elect takes office. Flávio Bolsonaro, despite his criticism of the measure, has not taken the same step, reportedly out of concern about the impact such a move could have among voters who benefit from the programme.