BEIJING — In response to recent U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, China waited several hours before issuing its first official statement, expressing ‘highly concern’ and calling for an immediate halt to military operations and the resumption of dialogue. The response, while firm, underscored China’s cautious approach to regional conflicts, prioritizing its long-term strategic interests over immediate involvement.

Strategic Non-Intervention

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the strikes as unacceptable and reiterated the call for renewed diplomatic talks the following day. However, there were no indications of direct intervention, a pattern consistent with China’s approach in previous conflicts, including its response to last year’s attack on Iran.

Analysts suggest that China’s restraint is rooted in its broader geopolitical strategy. While it has conducted military drills with Iran and established a base in Djibouti in 2017, its focus remains on protecting its interests in Asia, particularly in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. China has also played a role in Middle East diplomacy, such as brokering a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, but it has avoided direct military involvement in the region.

William Yang, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted that China is reluctant to project military power beyond its immediate periphery and is unwilling to act as a security guarantor in unstable regions like the Middle East. ‘China is focused on its own strategic goals rather than engaging in regional conflicts,’ he said.

U.S.-China Relations Take Precedence

China’s restrained response also reflects its prioritization of U.S. relations over its ties with Iran. Analysts suggest that Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the attacks is unlikely to derail ongoing plans for a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Beijing in early April. The relationship between the U.S. and China is crucial on multiple fronts, including trade, the economy, and the issue of Taiwan.

George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group, said that while China may have a war of words with the U.S. over Iran, creating a new conflict with Trump would carry more risk than benefit. ‘U.S.-China relations are already complicated enough for both leaders to handle,’ he said. ‘Adding Iran to the mix won’t be something both sides are keen to do.’

Still, some analysts suggest that Beijing could consider postponing the Trump visit if tensions escalate further. However, the likelihood of such a move remains low, given the importance of maintaining stable U.S.-China relations.

Economic and Energy Concerns

China is the top importer of oil from Iran, but it has developed alternative sources to mitigate the impact of potential disruptions. Last year, China imported about 1.4 million barrels a day — or 13% of its total seaborne oil imports — from Iran, according to Kpler, a data and analytics company. However, the firm estimates that enough oil is already in transit to last four to five months, giving China’s refineries time to adjust.

Muyu Xu, a senior analyst with Kpler, noted that ed Russian oil is likely to be the primary alternative. ‘The loss of Iranian oil appears marginal, not material, at least in the short-term,’ she said. However, the broader concerns for China include rising energy prices and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities in Gulf states.

QatarEnergy, a major supplier of liquefied natural gas, halted production Monday after its facilities were attacked. Any disruptions in this supply chain could have ripple effects on global energy markets, including China’s.

Analysts also note that China is unlikely to provide direct military aid to Iran. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a researcher at the Center of Economic and Law Studies in Indonesia, said that any military support would be limited to existing long-term defense trade arrangements and would avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. and its allies.

China has previously criticized the U.S. for supplying arms to Ukraine, arguing that such actions prolong conflicts. James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, noted that while Iran’s missile program is based on Chinese technology, China is likely to err on the side of caution rather than sell any missiles to Iran’s military.

The Chinese government’s response to the recent attacks reflects a broader strategy of non-intervention in regional conflicts while maintaining its strategic focus on economic and diplomatic interests. As tensions in the Middle East continue to evolve, China’s approach will likely remain one of cautious observation and strategic engagement.