WALL STREET (AP) — Federal Reserve policymakers’ latest insights land Wednesday afternoon as FOMC minutes from the January meeting hit at 2 p.m. ET, according to the Econoday economic calendar. Bond markets have priced in a possible final rate cut before June, with the 2-year Treasury yield dropping to cycle lows near August-September 2022 levels this week.

That signal points to concerns over sluggish growth outweighing inflation risks, even as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has pointed higher recently. Officials including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee have indicated cuts could come if inflation eases further, especially after year-over-year comparisons improve post-“Liberation Day.”

Friday delivers the main event at 8:30 a.m. ET: the advance estimate for U.S. fourth-quarter GDP. Economists expect a 3.0% annualized real growth rate, down sharply from third-quarter’s 4.4% surge. Trade data and gold exports continue distorting headline figures, so traders may focus elsewhere.

Buried in the report, the personal consumption expenditures price index for October through December offers the clearest inflation snapshot yet. December’s CPI and PPI readings suggest a warm year-end print, though January PCE data awaits a to-be-announced release.

Action picks up at 9:45 a.m. Friday with S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ indexes for February. The surveys could confirm January’s upbeat Institute for Supply Management manufacturing PMI if they stay above the 50 expansion threshold, where they’ve held longer than ISM readings. Stronger business sentiment might signal labor market gains later this year.

The morning closes with the University of Michigan’s final February consumer sentiment index at 10 a.m. ET. The preliminary reading beat expectations sharply, bolstering talk of a “vibe-cession” turnaround in a K-shaped economy.

Markets show dispersion after a holiday-shortened week. The MSCI All-Country World ex-USA Index posted its best start relative to the S&P 500 since at least 1995 through Tuesday, as U.S. large caps slipped into negative year-to-date territory. Small- and mid-cap stocks outperformed, alongside defensive consumer staples and real estate sectors.

Energy and materials led S&P 500 sectors through the first 31 trading days, blending late-cycle bets with havens. That mix unnerves some technicians, especially around late February. Equities peaked February 19 in both 2020 and 2025 amid COVID-19 shocks and tariff turmoil.

Tech faces fresh pressure from AI-driven deflation fears. Top holdings in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF traded at mid-teens price-to-earnings multiples after valuations halved in a “sell first” rout.

Corporate earnings cut through the noise. Walmart reports before the bell Thursday, with new CEO John Furner — who succeeded Doug McMillon this month — potentially sharing AI and automation updates from the trillion-dollar retailer. Investors seek consumer spending clues after January retail sales data delays tied to the government shutdown.

Fed speakers fill the conference circuit alongside Thursday’s mid-tier releases. Portfolio managers brace for a short trading week heavy on dissection.