Kathmandu — As vote counting continued across Nepal on Saturday, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by former Kathmandu mayor and rapper Balendra Shah, maintained a commanding lead in 98 of the 165 constituencies under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system. With 19 seats already declared, the RSP is ready to secure a historic majority in the upcoming parliament.

Strategic Dominance in Key Regions

According to the Election Commission, as of 8 AM (Nepal Standard Time), the RSP has already emerged victorious in 19 constituencies and is leading in 98 others. This dominance is particularly evident in regions such as Jhapa-5, where Balendra Shah is ahead of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli by a significant margin. Shah has secured 34,863 votes, while Oli trails with 9,068 votes, a four-fold difference.

In Sarlahi-4, RSP candidate Amreshkumar Singh has also secured a decisive lead over Nepali Congress President Gagan Kumar Thapa, who trails with 6,952 votes compared to Singh’s 11,383. These results highlight the RSP’s growing influence in key districts, particularly in the eastern and central parts of the country.

Political Landscape and Voter Turnout

The March 5 election saw a voter turnout of 60%, according to preliminary reports, with 3,406 candidates contesting under the FPTP system and 1,270 under the Proportional Representation (PR) category. A total of 68 parties participated in the elections, making it one of the most competitive parliamentary polls in Nepal’s history.

The RSP’s lead is also bolstered by the fragmentation of the opposition. The Nepali Congress, currently in second place, has secured four seats and leads in 11 constituencies. The CPN-UML, led by KP Sharma Oli, has so far won one seat and leads in 11 others. The Nepali Communist Party (NCP) has also won one seat and maintains leads in 11 seats.

While the RSP is expected to cross the simple majority threshold of 138 seats, party vice-president Dol Prasad Aryal told ANI on Friday that the RSP aims for an absolute two-thirds majority. ‘One hundred and eight six. Yes, in total we are expecting one hundred and eighty-six seats in total,’ Aryal said, exiting a counting center on the outskirts of Kathmandu.

A two-thirds majority in the 275-member lower house would require 186 seats, giving the RSP significant use in shaping the future legislative agenda. Analysts suggest that such a majority could allow the party to push forward with its reform agenda without relying on coalition partners.

Implications for Governance and Policy

The RSP’s potential two-thirds majority could have far-reaching implications for Nepal’s political landscape. With the ability to pass legislation unilaterally, the party could implement sweeping reforms in areas such as economic policy, governance, and anti-corruption measures. This would mark a departure from the previous coalition governments that often faced gridlock.

However, the RSP’s path to power is not without challenges. The party must first consolidate its gains in the remaining 135 constituencies where counting is still underway. In three constituencies, vote counting has yet to begin due to logistical delays and administrative issues. These delays could affect the final tally, though the RSP’s current lead suggests it is well-positioned to maintain its dominance.

With the results expected to be finalized by the end of the week, the RSP’s leadership is already preparing for the formation of a new government. Balendra Shah, the party’s prime ministerial candidate, has been in frequent contact with key stakeholders and has been touring the country to solidify support.

As the first major parliamentary election after a period of political instability, the 2026 results are seen as a turning point for Nepal. The RSP’s victory, if confirmed, would signal a shift toward a more stable and unified political environment, potentially reducing the frequency of coalition governments and power struggles.

The election also marks a significant moment for Nepal’s democratic process, with the high voter turnout and the participation of 68 parties indicating a more engaged electorate. This engagement could pave the way for greater accountability and transparency in governance moving forward.