The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun State is handling a complex political landscape as it gears up for the 2026 governorship election. Despite its leaders’ bold projections of securing one million votes, the party is ranked 33rd nationwide in membership registration, raising concerns about its grassroots mobilization and electoral readiness.

Membership Registration and Electoral Readiness

According to data from the APC website, the party has a total of 10,989,522 registered members, with 6,459,464 males and 4,529,876 females. However, Osun State, with 108,621 registered members, accounts for just 1% of the total, placing it 33rd in the country. Ekiti State, with 92,917 members, ranks 35th. This low membership base in Osun has sparked debates about the party’s ability to mobilize voters effectively.

Stakeholders within the state suggest that the APC is at a critical juncture, despite assurances from party leaders. Groups like the Renewed Hope Ambassadors have voiced concerns over the party’s readiness for the election, especially with the low membership numbers.

Governorship Contest and Candidate Selection

The APC in Osun State has seen a surge in political activity following the decision of Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, to drop out of the race. This led to nine aspirants vying for the gubernatorial ticket, including Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji, Iyiola Omisore, and others. However, only Oyebamiji and Dr. Mulikat Jimoh, the only female aspirant, passed the screening process.

The situation escalated when President Bola Tinubu intervened, leading to the selection of Oyebamiji as the consensus candidate on December 13, 2025. This decision, however, caused unease within the party, particularly with Omisore, who criticized Oyetola for allegedly favoring Oyebamiji.

Following the president’s intervention, a reconciliatory meeting was held at the residence of Chief Bisi Akande in December 2025, where party leaders urged all aspirants to unite behind Oyebamiji. The State Working Committee (SWC) of the APC also called for the eight governorship aspirants to work as a united front ahead of the election.

Speaking with the Director of Media, Chief Kola Olabisi, the state chairman, Tajudeen Lawal, praised the eight aspirants for their cooperation in the selection process. He expressed gratitude to President Tinubu, Chief Bisi Akande, and others for their roles in ensuring the smooth emergence of Oyebamiji.

Strengths and Weaknesses of APC

Despite its challenges, the APC has several strengths. Since leaving government in 2022, it has not lost any major member, except former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, who was expelled for anti-party activities. The party has also welcomed several prominent politicians from the ruling party, including Senator Francis Fadahunsi and others.

The APC has strong leadership across the nine federal constituencies in Osun State, with notable figures such as Engr Olalekan Badmus and Senator Ajibola Basiru. These leaders are expected to play a crucial role in mobilizing votes during the election.

However, the party faces significant challenges. The likelihood of securing genuine reconciliation from all the aspirants who were disqualified remains uncertain, particularly with Omisore, who may not fully support the party’s campaign. Additionally, the APC may struggle in areas like Osogbo and Olorunda, where the party’s choice of running mate, Kayode Benjamin Adereti, is from Ile-Ife.

The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Governor Ademola Adeleke, is expected to have strong support in Ede South and North, where Adeleke’s infrastructure projects have garnered local backing. Other areas like Egbedore, Orolu, Iwo, Ayedire, Odo-Otin, and Ola-Oluwa may also support Adeleke due to his development efforts.

As the 2026 governorship election approaches, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is expected to publish the final list of political parties’ candidates. This will be a critical step in determining the electoral landscape in Osun State.