Pakistan launched air raids into Afghanistan on Sunday, targeting militant camps near the border after a series of attacks blamed on Afghan-based groups, as tensions with India over Afghanistan’s new government escalate. The military strikes came amid a fragile ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey, which has now been shattered by renewed cross-border violence.

Escalating Violence and Pakistan’s Response

In the weeks leading up to the air raids, Pakistan faced a wave of attacks, including a suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in Islamabad on February 6 that killed 36 people and wounded 170. Days later, an explosives-laden vehicle struck a security post in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child, with the attacker identified as an Afghan national. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a formal protest to the Taliban on February 19, but the violence continued, prompting the military’s response.

On Saturday, a suicide bomber struck a security convoy in Bannu, killing two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel. The Pakistani military then launched air strikes in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar and Paktika provinces, targeting what it described as sanctuaries of the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) and its affiliates. According to Pakistani authorities, the strikes killed at least 80 militants and targeted seven camps along the border.

Afghanistan’s Response and Regional Reactions

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence rejected Pakistan’s claims, stating that the strikes hit a religious school and residential homes, killing and wounding dozens, including women and children. Afghan sources told Al Jazeera that at least 17 people were killed in Nangarhar alone. Kabul pledged a “measured and appropriate response” to the attacks.

India quickly entered the fray, condemning Pakistan’s military action and supporting Afghanistan’s sovereignty. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “India strongly condemns Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan.” He accused Pakistan of “externalising its internal failures” and highlighted the growing relationship between India and the Taliban.

Pakistan’s Stance and the TTP Threat

Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting claimed it had “conclusive evidence” that the recent attacks were carried out on the “behest of their Afghanistan-based leadership and handlers.” The ministry stated that Islamabad had repeatedly urged Kabul to take action against armed groups using Afghan soil, but no substantive steps have been taken.

Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, warned in October that Afghanistan was being used as a base of operations against Pakistan, and that necessary measures would be taken to protect Pakistani citizens. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had also emphasized the need for cooperation from Kabul to rein in the TTP and other groups.

The TTP, which emerged in 2007, is distinct from the Taliban but shares ideological, social, and linguistic ties. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of providing sanctuary to the TTP, a charge Kabul denies. The group has been responsible for numerous attacks in Pakistan, with the Pak Institute for Peace Studies reporting 699 attacks nationwide in 2024, a 34 percent increase from the previous year.

Regional Dynamics and Future Implications

Experts suggest that Pakistan’s military strikes may inadvertently bring the Taliban and India closer together. Abdul Basit, a scholar at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, said, “The more Pakistan will strike in Afghanistan, the more Kabul and TTP will come closer.” He acknowledged Pakistan’s security dilemma, noting that the country is “left between bad and worse options” after losing numerous security personnel.

Fahad Nabeel, head of the Islamabad-based research consultancy Geopolitical Insights, argued that Pakistan’s strategy should include more than military pressure on the Taliban. He suggested measures such as reopening the border, resuming bilateral trade, and sharing actionable intelligence with allies like China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to increase pressure on the Afghan Taliban.

The situation has also drawn attention to India’s growing influence in Afghanistan. Last October, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India for six days, the first trip by a senior Taliban official since the group returned to power in 2021. India also reopened its embassy in Kabul and sent aid to Afghanistan following a major earthquake, gestures closely watched in Islamabad.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif claimed that India had “penetrated” the Taliban leadership, suggesting that Kabul’s ties with New Delhi made it less willing to cut ties with the TTP. However, he provided no public evidence to support his claims.

With Pakistan’s air raids breaking a fragile ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey, the region now faces a potential return to heightened cross-border violence. Analysts warn that the situation could further destabilize the region, with implications for regional security, trade, and diplomatic relations.