By-Election Background

The by-election in the Farrer constituency was triggered by the resignation of Sussan Ley, who stepped down after being ousted as leader of the opposition conservative Liberal Party. With most ballots counted. Farley has won the seat, leaving independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe far behind.

Farrer is a vast regional constituency in New South Wales, covering 127,000 sq km—an area larger than South Korea — the seat has traditionally been held by either the Liberal or National parties, making Farley’s win particularly notable.

Rise of Right-Wing Populism

While the result will not affect the Labor government’s large majority, it is a clear sign that voters are moving away from traditional political parties in Australia. Saturday’s poll was the first federal test of One Nation’s support after the party recorded the second-highest number of votes out of any political party in the South Australian state election in March.

As news of the party’s victory emerged, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson told supporters this was not just a win for Farrer, but a win for Australia. She said the party was “coming after those other seats” and signaled the potential for further gains in future elections.

Farley, whose background is in agribusiness, told supporters that One Nation had “reached the end of its beginning, we’re going through the ceiling.” He added, “What are we doing tonight? We’re like a mason. With a chisel, and a hammer and we’re re-carving the letters into the Australian democracy.”.

Electoral System and Campaign

Australia has a preferential voting system where voters rank candidates from their most to least preferred. The final tally is calculated as a challenge between two candidates after preferences are distributed to ensure that the winner is supported by a majority.

One Nation had never won a federal lower house contest before Saturday’s poll. In the late 1990s, Pauline Hanson initially held her seat as an independent before losing her re-election bid. She has since returned to the parliament as a senator.

During the campaign, Farley said he had “lost a bit of faith” in the major parties. “They say one thing to your face and then go and do something else in parliament,” he said. The by-election also marked tests for the new leaders of the Liberal and National parties,Angus Taylor, who ousted Ley in February, and Matt Canavan, who replaced David Littleproud in March.