The 2026 Ballon d’Or will be awarded on October 26 in London to mark the award’s 70th anniversary — the change in location honors Sir Stanley Matthews, the first recipient in 1956, and the ceremony will return to Paris in 2027. The award, jointly presented by France Football and the UEFA since 2024, will be selected from 100 candidates by an international panel of journalists, according to Wettbasis.

Contenders and Expectations

England captain Harry Kane has acknowledged his position as a top contender for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Speaking in an interview with former England midfielder Owen Hargreaves, Kane said, “The thing with football opinions – there are so many opinions, so many arguments for different players, and people love this player because ‘he’s fast’ and ‘he’s got great IQ’ and ‘his finishing is great.’” Kane is among the favorites, alongside Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Rodri, according to Real Broadcasting Network.

Michael Olise, currently with Crystal Palace, is also in the conversation. His standout performances for Bayern Munich and the French national team have drawn attention from clubs like Real Madrid, which sees potential in his chemistry with Mbappé. However, ESPN suggests that Olise is more likely to contend for the 2027 Ballon d’Or than the 2026 edition. Jude Bellingham, who was named the best player of the 2026 World Cup by Thomas Tuchel, is also gaining traction. Bellingham’s redemption story after a lackluster 2025 season has placed him among the top prospects.

Shift in Voting Criteria

The organization behind the Ballon d’Or recently emphasized that the award now prioritizes individual performance over team success. In an article published on its official website on August 9, 2026, the organization reiterated the updated criteria established by France Football in March 2022. According to these rules, the three main criteria—listed in order of importance,are: individual performances and decisive, impressive moments; collective performance and titles; and finally, general class and fair play. The removal of career trajectory as a factor means that players like Kane and Mbappé, who had standout seasons, are now more likely to be rewarded regardless of their teams’ domestic or international success.

This shift may impact the outcome of the 2026 edition, particularly as it comes after the 2026 World Cup. Players who performed exceptionally during the tournament, such as Bellingham and Vinicius Jr., could see their chances rise despite their clubs not winning major trophies. Vinicius, for example, had 22 goals in 36 matches for Real Madrid in the 2024,25 season but did not help the club win a title. The Independent en Español noted that his performance at the World Cup, where Brazil failed to advance past the quarterfinals, may still earn him consideration due to his individual brilliance.

Betting Odds and Public Perception

According to Wettbasis, Kane is currently the favorite in the 2026 Ballon d’Or betting market. However, his chances are closely challenged by Mbappé and other emerging talents like Yamal. The betting terrain reflects the competitive nature of the award, with a wide range of players in contention. Kane, when asked about the debates surrounding the award, said he was “happy that I am in contention,” acknowledging the significance of the vote in the football world.

The 2026 Ballon d’Or is shaping up to be a highly contested and debated award. With the voting criteria emphasizing individual excellence, the final decision may hinge on specific standout performances rather than overall team success. As the season progresses, the performances of Kane, Mbappé, Bellingham, and others will be under intense scrutiny as they aim to earn football’s most prestigious individual honor.