Cubans are asking a new question as they process the news that the US has charged Cuba’s 94-year-old former president, Raúl Castro: who’s your neighbor? — Living near a senior government or military official is now seen as a potential risk with growing fears of US military strikes.

Outrage Over Indictment

Washington has sparked anger among Cubans, many of whom had lost faith in their own government. “How dare they?” said a Havana teacher considering attending a protest march. “I’d never normally go to something like that, but it’s despicable. Who are they to threaten us in such a way?”

The indictment relates to an incident in 1996 when Cuban fighter jets shot down two unarmed Cessna planes from the exile group Brothers to the Rescue. The event, which killed four people, is now central to the charges against Castro. At the time, it was seen as both an atrocity and a strategic error.

Historical Context and US Tolerance

Brothers to the Rescue was initially formed by Bay of Pigs veteran José Basulto to monitor Cuban refugees heading to the US. By the mid-1990s, the group began flying over Cuba, dropping leaflets and medallions,actions that Fidel Castro said the US would never tolerate, according to the book Back Channel to Cuba.

Cuban ambassador to Brussels at the time, Carlos Alzugaray, recalled that Fidel Castro had sent several messages to Bill Clinton urging him to stop the flights. “Fidel was trying to find a diplomatic solution,” he said. “He had sent several messages to Bill Clinton saying, ‘You have to stop this, we cannot stand it.’”

Current pressures on the Cuban government are far greater than they were in the 1990s. The US indictment came after weeks of increased surveillance flights, intelligence reports suggesting Cuba has drones, and the arrival of the aircraft carrier Nimitz in the Caribbean.

Political Rhetoric and Sanctions

Marco Rubio, the Cuban American US secretary of state, delivered a speech to the Cuban people, calling on them to accept US aid to alleviate the 22-hour blackouts caused by a four-month oil blockade and nearly 70-year-old embargo. “You, who call the island your home, are going through unimaginable hardships,” he said. “Today I want to tell you what we, in the US, are offering to help you not only alleviate the current crisis, but also to build a better future.”

Rubio also criticized the Cuban government for allowing the military to control a significant portion of the economy. “They buy fuel for their generators and their vehicles while the people are asked to sacrifice,” he said. His speech was widely seen in Cuba as both well-informed and politically savvy.

Rubio had previously offered $100 million in aid to Cuba, which was reportedly accepted, but he did not confirm whether the US would agree to Havana’s terms. In the meantime, US sanctions have driven out non-US businesses operating in Cuba, with Spanish airline World2Fly being the latest to stop flying to the island.

Donald Trump has long advocated for freeing Cuba for his Cuban American supporters in Miami. A Bloomberg report revealed that Sherritt, a major Canadian nickel miner in Cuba, is in talks with Ray Washburne, a former Trump adviser, to hand over a controlling stake. “I think this is a pretty good introductory course to the sort of barefaced corruption that would accompany any sort of US control over Cuba,” said a European businessman who works in Cuba.

Such US dominance was a key factor in the original Cuban revolution. Meanwhile, one of the MiG pilots alleged to have shot down the planes in 1996, Luis González-Pardo Rodríguez, arrived in the US in 2024 as part of a wave of immigration that has led to Cuba losing 20% of its population since 2021. He now faces charges of immigration fraud alongside Raúl Castro.

Manuel Barcia, a Cuban and now pro-vice-chancellor at the University of Bath, said the indictments should have happened in a post-Castro Cuba. “All these crimes—including many we don’t know about—will come out and it should be for the Cuban people to decide whether there are trials or a process of reconciliation and forgiveness,” he said.

Whether the US will attempt to abduct Castro, as it did with Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, remains unclear. “How far do they want to go with this?” asked former ambassador Carlos Alzugaray. “Are they really going to come in and abduct a 94-year-old guy?”