Washingtonians may finally begin to feel the thaw, but the transition from winter to spring is expected to be anything but smooth. According to recent forecasts, March is likely to be milder than average, with temperatures rising to the 70s in the coming weeks. However, the month could also bring a return to colder conditions, creating a classic ‘fake spring’ scenario.

Temperature Trends and Precipitation Outlook

March is projected to finish 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal, with highs reaching at least the 70s on several days. However, the month will start on the chilly side, with temperatures rising by the middle of next week. By mid-March, a return to cooler weather is possible, with highs dropping to the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s.

While the forecast suggests no major snowstorms, there is a slight chance of a trace to an inch of snowfall. However, the early chill is not expected to produce significant accumulation. By mid- to late March, when average highs climb into the mid- to upper 50s, the chances of snow diminish further.

Precipitation and Drought Conditions

Precipitation is expected to run near average, offering little relief from the severe drought affecting the region. While models show ample precipitation across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, it is unclear how much of that will push eastward to the Washington, D.C., area.

The lack of significant snowfall is partly due to the early chill being too brief to produce meaningful accumulation. Additionally, temperatures trend too warm for snow until at least midmonth. However, late-season surprises are never impossible, as the region’s weather can be unpredictable.

Historical March Weather Patterns

March, straddling winter and spring, is notoriously volatile as cold and warm air masses spar for control. The old saying that the month ‘comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb’ is not perfect, but it does hold some truth: snow and biting cold are more common early on and become less frequent as the month progresses.

Average highs begin March in the low 50s and climb into the low 60s by month’s end. Overnight lows rise from the low to mid-30s into the low 40s. This warming brings budding trees, blooming flowers, and, often, an unwelcome surge of pollen.

March is also typically the windiest month of the year due to frequent clashes between cold and warm air masses. One of the area’s most intense windstorms on record struck March 2, 2018, when many locations endured 12 or more consecutive hours of wind gusts topping 50 mph.

These atmospheric battles have also fueled major storms and, when enough cold air has been in place, significant snowfalls. March averages about 2 inches of snow, but totals have occasionally far exceeded that. The five biggest March snowstorms on record include 12 inches on March 27-28, 1891, and 11.5 inches on March 29-30, 1942.

While the largest March snowstorms occurred before 1950, notable ones have happened more recently, including 8.4 inches on March 3, 1999, and 7.2 inches on March 16-17, 2014. The March 1993 ‘Storm of the Century’ delivered 6 to 14 inches across the region, and the March 18-21, 1958, event produced about 5 inches in D.C., with 1 to 3 feet north and west of the city.

February, which finished 3.7 degrees colder than normal, was the coldest since 2015. With an average temperature of 36.3 degrees, it marked the first time since the winter of 2009-2010 that December, January, and February all averaged below normal. Meteorological winter, spanning December to February, was the coldest since 2002-2003.

Total February precipitation reached 2.57 inches, very close to the 2.62-inch average. Despite the persistent chill, snowfall was limited, with just 1.1 inches recorded in D.C., well below the seasonal norm of 5 inches.

The forecast for February was nearly spot-on, with temperatures 4 to 6 degrees colder than normal and near normal precipitation. However, the prediction for 3 to 7 inches of snow was too high, as only 1.1 inches were recorded.