The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has left the Islamic Republic in a state of uncertainty, with no official successor named and the clerical establishment scrambling to maintain stability. Khamenei, who ruled for nearly four decades with an iron grip, was killed in a coordinated strike by US and Israeli forces, according to reports. Now, the responsibility falls to the Assembly of Experts—a body of 88 senior clerics—to choose the next leader.

Assembly of Experts to Name New Leader

The Assembly of Experts is tasked with selecting the next Supreme Leader, a role it has only performed once since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979. That was in 1989, when Khamenei was hastily chosen after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the regime. This time, the stakes are higher, with the US and Israel continuing their bombing campaign, as stated by President Donald Trump, who has vowed to continue the strikes.

The assembly will need to meet soon to deliberate on candidates, but the political climate is fraught. The new leader must be a male cleric with political competence, moral authority, and loyalty to the Islamic Republic, as outlined in the constitution. Analysts say the assembly may interpret these rules to exclude reformist clerics who advocate for greater social freedoms and engagement with the international community.

Potential Contenders for the Role

Among the possible candidates is Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late leader. He is known to wield influence behind the scenes and has strong ties to the Islamic Major Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s most powerful military force. However, father-to-son succession is not favored in the Shiite clerical establishment, and Mojtaba is not a high-ranking cleric. He was sanctioned by the US in 2019, which could complicate his chances.

Another potential candidate is Alireza Arafi, a 67-year-old cleric and deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts. He has close ties to Khamenei and has served on the Guardian Council, which oversees election candidates and legislation. According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, Khamenei’s appointment of Arafi to key roles suggests confidence in his bureaucratic abilities. However, Arafi is not known to be a political heavyweight and lacks close ties to the security establishment.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, a hardline cleric in his early 60s, is another contender. He is a member of the Assembly of Experts and represents the most conservative wing of the clerical establishment. Mirbagheri recently made headlines for justifying the high death toll in Israel’s war in Gaza, stating that the death of even half the world’s population is “worth it” if it brings the world closer to God. His views are in line with the regime’s hardline stance, but his lack of public office may hinder his rise to power.

Hassan Khomeini, the early 50s grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is also being considered. As the founder’s grandson, he has religious and major legitimacy, but he has not held public office and appears to have little influence with the security apparatus or ruling elite. He is known to be less hardline than many of his peers and was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016.

Challenges Ahead

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, a senior cleric in his late 60s, is another potential candidate. He is closely linked to the Assembly of Experts, where he serves as first deputy chairman. He was close to Khamenei but has a low profile domestically and is not known to have strong ties to the IRGC. His experience in managing succession makes him a viable candidate, but his lack of public presence may limit his appeal.

The assembly faces a daunting task in choosing a successor amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes and a fractured political landscape. The new leader will need to command respect from both the clerical establishment and the military, while also handling international pressure. The selection process could take weeks or months, and the outcome will have lasting implications for Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.

Analysts say the choice will be influenced by the need for stability and the ability to project strength in the face of external threats. The new leader will have to balance the demands of the clerical establishment with the realities of Iran’s geopolitical position. With the US and Israel continuing their campaign, the regime will need a leader who can unify the country and project a message of resilience.