The Muslim electorate in the Gorton and Denton by-election has become a key factor in determining the outcome of the contest, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party under pressure as the Israel-Gaza conflict dominates the political landscape. The by-election, held on Thursday, is shaping up as a test of Labour’s appeal to the region’s diverse communities, particularly its large Muslim population.

The Muslim Vote as a Deciding Factor

Muslims make up more than a quarter of the 80,000 registered voters in the constituency, which is one of the most ethnically diverse in the UK. The result of the by-election could have significant implications for Starmer’s leadership, especially after Labour’s loss of several seats in the 2024 general election, including in areas with strong Muslim populations.

According to Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, the Muslim vote is likely to be the deciding factor. ‘They represent a volatile swing vote, and Labour was massively taken by surprise by the loss of the Muslim vote in 2024,’ Ford said.

The Greens, traditionally a minor political force in the UK, are now in a strong position to challenge Labour’s dominance in the area. The Greens’ candidate, Hannah Spencer, is targeting Muslim voters who are disillusioned with Labour’s stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. In a constituency with a large Pakistani community, Spencer has distributed leaflets in Urdu showing her posing in front of a mosque wearing a keffiyeh and urging voters to ‘make Labour pay.’

Campaign Strategies and Controversies

The leaflet also features newspaper headlines highlighting Reform party’s proposal to ban visas for Pakistani migrants. It states: ‘Push the falling walls one more time. Labour must be punished for Gaza. Reform must be defeated, and Green must be voted for. Vote for the Green Party for a strong voice for Muslims.’

Spencer has also released a video that includes imagery of Starmer shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a gesture that has been criticized by many Pakistanis, who make up a fifth of the Muslim electorate in Denton. The video also shows Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, followed by aerial footage of Gaza’s destruction.

‘Politicians aren’t working for us,’ Spencer states in Urdu, according to reports. The video has been shared in Bangla and is set to be broadcast in Arabic and Pashto ahead of the by-election.

Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, accused the Greens of a ‘shameful attempt to manipulate the respected Muslim community.’ An unnamed senior UK cabinet minister accused the Greens of ‘whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza,’ according to The Times.

The Greens have also released a campaign video targeting Reform’s candidate, GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, accusing him of being someone who would ‘fuel the flames of Islamophobia’ as the area’s MP. Goodwin has faced scrutiny over his comments on national identity, suggesting that people born in the UK from an ethnic background should not automatically be considered British.

‘It takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody ‘British’,’ Goodwin said last year. In response to Spencer’s campaign, Goodwin accused the Greens of ‘blatant sectarianism.’ He wrote on X: ‘If you want an MP who will obsess over Gaza, prioritise the Muslim vote, and put some communities before others, then vote Green. But if you want an MP who will prioritise the people of Gorton & Denton, then vote Reform.’

Broader Political Implications

The by-election is occurring in a broader context of British politics, where the traditional centre is fracturing, with voters increasingly aligning with far-left and far-right parties. A recent Opinium poll found that Labour and the Greens are tied at 28 per cent, just one per cent ahead of Reform. Tactical voting could tip the balance, with progressive voters more likely to switch to the Greens than Labour.

The result of the by-election could signal a shift in the political landscape, particularly for Labour, which is struggling to maintain its base in areas with significant Muslim populations. The Greens’ potential success in this traditionally Labour stronghold could indicate a growing trend of voters moving to the left in response to the Israel-Gaza conflict and other issues.

As the by-election approaches, all parties are intensifying their efforts to secure the Muslim vote, with the outcome likely to have broader implications for the future of UK politics.