India’s opposition coalition made a strategic pivot in Parliament on Monday, abandoning a planned vote of no-confidence against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in favor of pressing the government on the escalating Iran-Israel war and its economic consequences. This shift, which surprised both the government and analysts, saw opposition lawmakers instead focus on rising oil prices, the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East, and the plight of Indian nationals stranded in the war-torn region.

War in the Middle East and Economic Fallout

The first day of the second half of the budget session began with opposition MPs shouting slogans and holding placards that read, ‘Middle East is burning, Indians are stranded, there is no oil. Modiji, stop bowing to (Donald) Trump.’ These chants were directed at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with critics accusing his government of being too accommodating to U.S. policies in the region.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar addressed the House, but the opposition continued to press for a discussion on the war’s impact on India’s economy and its citizens. The government, however, refused to entertain the request, leading to repeated adjournments. By the end of the day, the Lok Sabha was adjourned at 3 p.m., with the opposition still seeking a formal debate on the issue.

Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition, stated that the ongoing war in the Middle East would have significant economic repercussions. ‘What is happening in West Asia is going to cause significant damage. Our economy is going to suffer a huge loss. You have already seen the state of the stock market. The economy is going to be severely hit… so discuss that,’ he said.

Strategic Shift and Political Calculations

The decision to abandon the no-confidence motion against Om Birla came after a meeting attended by senior opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav. Earlier in February, the opposition had submitted a no-confidence motion against Birla, accusing him of favoring the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and not allowing sufficient time for opposition MPs to speak.

However, the timing of the motion worked against the opposition. The notice was submitted with less than 14 days remaining in the first half of the budget session, meaning the motion could only be addressed now. Sources told NDTV that the opposition had initially planned to push the motion forward, but after consultations, they decided to focus on the Iran-Israel war instead.

According to sources, the Trinamool Congress, despite its usual rivalry with the Congress, had agreed to support the motion. However, the opposition leaders acknowledged that they lack the numbers to make the impeachment bid a genuine contest, even with Trinamool’s backing.

Rising Oil Prices and Economic Concerns

The opposition’s shift in focus was partly driven by the rising oil prices triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots over the weekend pushed prices above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in four years. This has raised fears of fuel shortages in India, which imports over 80% of its oil needs.

The government has assured the public that it has sufficient petroleum reserves and has already taken steps to mitigate the impact of the crisis. Last week, sources confirmed that India plans to increase its purchase of Russian crude to offset potential supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes.

Despite these assurances, the opposition continues to argue that the economic impact of the war is being underestimated. ‘Oil prices… the country’s economy… these are all public issues. We will discuss the Lok Sabha Speaker’s issue later,’ said Gandhi, emphasizing the need for immediate action on the war’s consequences.

Humanitarian Concerns and Indian Nationals

Another key factor in the opposition’s shift was the growing concern for Indian nationals stranded in the war-torn region. The government has already repatriated over 52,000 Indian citizens from the Middle East since March 1, but thousands more remain in potentially life-threatening situations.

Indian states like Kerala, which has a large diaspora in the Gulf, have been particularly vocal about the issue. The state is set to hold Assembly elections in April and May, and local leaders have highlighted the plight of over 25 lakh people from the state who work in the Middle East and send significant foreign currency back home.

According to the External Affairs Ministry, the government has been actively working to repatriate Indian nationals, but the opposition argues that more needs to be done to ensure the safety of those still in the region. ‘Lakhs more from other Indian states are still in the war-torn region,’ said a senior opposition source.

What’s Next for Parliament

On Tuesday, the focus is expected to shift back to the no-confidence motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju is set to initiate the debate, and Home Minister Amit Shah is also expected to participate. However, the opposition remains divided on whether to push the motion forward, with some members suggesting that the issue may be revisited at a later date.

Analysts say the opposition’s strategic shift highlights the growing concerns over the economic and humanitarian impact of the Iran-Israel war. With oil prices at a four-year high and the Middle East in turmoil, the government faces mounting pressure to address the crisis.

As the budget session continues, the focus will likely remain on the war’s impact on India’s economy and the safety of its citizens abroad. The opposition’s move to abandon the trust vote in favor of pressing the government on the war and its consequences highlights the growing urgency of the situation.