JOHANNESBURG — Zimbabweans living in South Africa, both documented and undocumented, brace for a surge in hostility during the 2024 national elections. Politicians across the spectrum have targeted migrants from Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi as scapegoats for the nation’s economic woes, according to analysts tracking campaign rhetoric.

Estimates of undocumented immigrants vary widely, with ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba claiming 15 million in the country, mostly from neighboring states. Officials acknowledge porous borders, particularly along the Limpopo River shared with Zimbabwe’s Masvingo and Matabeleland South provinces, about 225 kilometers from key crossing points. Corruption and weak patrols in these areas allow thousands to cross undetected each year, the analysts said.

South Africa’s unemployment rate hovers above 30 percent, compounded by frequent power outages and strained social services. Parties vying for power in the May 29, 2024, vote — including the African National Congress, Democratic Alliance, Economic Freedom Fighters and Inkatha Freedom Party — promise jobs and security. Yet groups like ActionSA, Operation Dudula and Build One South Africa led by Mmusi Maimane stand out for explicit anti-immigrant stances.

“Makwerekwere,” a slur for African foreigners, peppers campaign speeches. Dudula activists have conducted raids in informal settlements, targeting squatter camps where many Zimbabweans reside. Police Minister Bhekokwakhe Cele faces accusations of coordinating with Dudula on these operations to flush out criminals, though police deny involvement.

The Economic Freedom Fighters, polling strongly, defend African migrants and blame home governments for economic failures driving the exodus. EFF leaders argue South Africa benefits from the labor, but their rhetoric does little to quell fears. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwe Exemption Permit Holders Association pushes to extend permits for registered Zimbabweans, affecting over 180,000 people whose documents expire in 2023.

Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC grapples with scandals, including the president’s Phala Phala farm theft case involving millions of rands, and rolling blackouts from Eskom. These vulnerabilities amplify migrant-blaming narratives. In recent months, Dudula and BOSA criticized ANC and EFF leniency toward Zimbabweans, firing up supporters.

Migrants from Ethiopia and Somalia face lesser scrutiny but share the peril. Historical ties bind Zimbabwe and South Africa, yet economic desperation — drought and joblessness in border provinces — propels the flow. South Africa’s strong industries draw workers for even low-skill roles.

As election day nears, some Zimbabweans plan returns home to dodge violence. Others hunker down in townships, hoping politicians pivot from scapegoating. The DA may highlight ANC governance failures over immigration, but experts doubt it sways the populist tide.

South Africa’s immigration system struggles with asylum claims and fake visas. Border inefficiencies persist despite upgrades. Come 2024, the immigration debate will dominate airwaves, with 14 registered parties echoing anti-foreigner sentiments to court voters.

For the millions in the shadows, the vote signals peril. Informal settlements buzz with dread; one resident in Alexandra township told reporters, “We just want to work, not trouble.” Whether parties deliver on pledges or stoke division remains the electoral unknown.