GAZA CITY — Independent researchers estimate more than 75,000 people died violently in Gaza from Oct. 7, 2023, through Jan. 5, 2025. That number exceeds the Gaza Ministry of Health’s count of 49,090 by about 35%, according to a report detailing the Gaza Mortality Survey.

The survey, published in The Lancet Global Health, drew from interviews across 2,000 households and 9,729 individuals. Researchers calculated roughly 75,200 violent deaths. The toll amounts to 3.4% of Gaza’s prewar population of 2.2 million, they said. Ministry of Health data provided a conservative baseline, the study concluded, not an overstatement.

Earlier work in The Lancet, released in January 2025, used capture-recapture methods to peg deaths at 64,260 in the war’s first nine months. The new survey pushed the timeframe into 2025. It also tallied 16,300 non-violent deaths. Of those, 8,540 tied directly to collapsed healthcare and dire living conditions, per the journal.

Injuries compounded the crisis. A separate model in eClinicalMedicine forecast 116,020 total injuries by April 30, 2025. Between 29,000 and 46,000 of those demanded complex reconstructive surgery. Explosions caused over 80% of the wounds, researchers reported.

Hospitals crumbled under the strain. By May 2025, just 12 of Gaza’s 36 facilities offered more than bare emergency services. Bed capacity shrank to around 2,000, The Lancet Global Health stated.

The Gaza Mortality Survey marked a population-representative effort amid restricted access for outside investigators. Teams conducted fieldwork despite ongoing conflict. Findings highlighted indirect deaths from starvation, disease and medical shortages alongside direct violence.

Gaza’s Ministry of Health, run by Hamas, has faced scrutiny over its tallies. Israel disputes the figures, claiming they include natural deaths and militants. The studies countered that ministry numbers undercounted the true scale.

Al Jazeera first detailed the report, drawing from the peer-reviewed publications. The Lancet Global Health specializes in open-access global health research. eClinicalMedicine, another Lancet outlet, focused on the injury projections.

War erupted Oct. 7, 2023, after Hamas attacks killed 1,200 in Israel and took 250 hostages. Israel’s response leveled much of Gaza. Ceasefire talks dragged into 2025 with no end in sight.

United Nations agencies have cited similar undercounts in past conflicts. A 2024 WHO review found Gaza’s health data reliable despite chaos. These latest estimates push the documented toll far higher.

Researchers called for urgent aid surges. Rebuilding hospitals could take years, they warned. Excess mortality from disrupted care continues to climb.