Donald Trump is set to deliver a primetime address on the war in Iran, according to the BBC, as questions swirl over his next move in the conflict. The speech. Scheduled for Wednesday night. Will be watched by millions across the globe, many of whom are hoping for clarity on how the war will end and what might come next.

Domestic Pressure and Public Sentiment

The Trump administration has provided little indication of what prompted the hastily-arranged remarks, or whether they will signal the beginning of the end of the conflict or a potential escalation. This ambiguity is, at least in part, by design. Trump often changes course or leaves his thinking a mystery to all but a small inner circle of supporters, a pattern he has acknowledged leaves both allies and critics wondering about his next move.

The president is also aware that the address comes at a critical time in his presidency, amid mounting domestic pressure to find a way out of the conflict. Poll after poll has shown that Americans have little appetite for a protracted conflict in Iran, particularly if it involves the prospect of US soldiers on Iranian soil.

A Reuters poll released this week found that two-thirds of Americans believe the US should work to swiftly wrap up its involvement in the war, even if the administration’s stated military objectives are not fully accomplished. This sentiment reflects a growing concern among the public about the potential costs of prolonged military engagement.

Economic Concerns and Domestic Impact

Closer to home. Many Americans are increasingly wary of higher prices at the petrol pump, which this week crossed the average of $4 a gallon for the first time in years. For a president who, pre-war, often pointed to lower petrol prices as a mark of success, this trend represents a challenge.

Imran Bayoumi, a geostrategy expert with the Atlantic Council in Washington DC and former policy adviser to the defence department, told the BBC that the ‘deep domestic unpopularity’ of the war, along with the economic fallout, ‘both pose a problem ahead of midterm elections’ if the war were to drag on. The economic concerns are likely to play a significant role in shaping the public’s perception of the administration’s actions.

Shifting Positions and Uncertain Outcomes

The US president will also likely present his view on how the conflict, or at least US involvement in it, will come to a close. This has shifted repeatedly, from initial calls for an ‘unconditional’ Iranian surrender to a potential negotiated agreement. Just yesterday, he abruptly shifted course, saying that the war could end in ‘two to three’ weeks even without any deal.

This morning, he again seemed to shift, posting on Truth Social that Iran’s ‘much less radicalised’ president had asked the US for a ceasefire, but that the US would not consider it until the Strait of Hormuz is open. Until then, Trump promised, the US will be ‘blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, back to the Stone Ages.’

According to Bayoumi, what constitutes victory for Trump is ‘loosely defined,’ which provides the president with some flexibility. ‘Not having clearly defined goals going into the conflict allows Trump to declare victory at any time,’ he said. ‘[He] has mentioned that he’s halted the nuclear threat from Iran, but it’s not clear he actually has.’

While on a tactical level the US-Israeli operation has been successful in severely degrading Iran’s military, Trump’s assertion that the war is winding down soon leaves a very narrow window for more complex military options, such as seizing control of Iran’s highly-enriched uranium or opening the Strait. On the latter point, we are likely to hear the president dismiss the NATO alliance as one that he believes has proven itself unwilling to help advance US interests.

What he says tonight will be carefully scrutinised by US allies and adversaries, some of whom will wonder whether it constitutes a ruse. In Tehran, the country’s remaining leadership will remember that Trump had publicly endorsed negotiations he said were ongoing and positive nearly until the moment US bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer.