The United States and Israel have intensified strikes on Iran following failed negotiations and renewed unrest inside the Islamic republic, marking a volatile new phase in the Middle East crisis. Military action, nuclear tensions, and domestic protests have converged, placing some of the most powerful and polarizing figures in global politics at the center of events. From Washington and Jerusalem to Tehran and Riyadh, leaders are calculating risks that could reshape the region.

The Role of President Donald Trump

President Donald Trump has consistently taken a hard line on Iran, positioning himself as a global peacemaker but adopting a confrontational stance toward the Islamic republic. Last year, his forces joined Israel’s war with Iran by conducting strikes on nuclear sites. During the mass protests that shook Iran in January, Trump warned he would hit ‘very hard’ if authorities ‘start killing people like they have in the past.’

In his first term, Trump was the architect of the ‘maximum pressure’ doctrine aimed at weakening Iran economically and diplomatically. In 2018, he pulled the United States out of the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, which offered Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for limiting its ambitions. While Western countries and Israel accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, Tehran has consistently maintained its programme is for civilian purposes.

In February, Trump reopened indirect negotiations with Iran, while continuing to multiply his threats. His actions have placed him at the center of the escalating confrontation, with his rhetoric often amplifying tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Defiant Stance

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, has long embodied the Islamic republic’s posture of defiance towards its enemies, chiefly the United States and Israel. In power since 1989 and holding the final say on all major state matters, Khamenei has overseen the steady advancement of Iran’s nuclear programme, framing uranium enrichment as a sovereign right.

Expanding Iran’s regional influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen has been a defining feature of his foreign policy. Khamenei has insisted Iran will ‘never surrender’ to the United States and is skeptical about diplomacy. During nuclear talks in 2025, he said he doubted a deal would ‘lead to any outcome,’ arguing that Iran’s problems should be solved internally.

When talks resumed, Khamenei warned that Iran was capable of sinking American warships. He refuses to abandon uranium enrichment and will not entertain discussion of Iran’s missile programme. ‘The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,’ he warned.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Existential Threat

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long cast Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its missile arsenal, and its support for militant groups as an existential danger. His push for military action materialized during the 12-day war last June. He maintains that Israel will again act to prevent any resurgence of Iran’s attack capabilities.

In January, addressing the Iranian public directly, Netanyahu said he hoped ‘the Persian nation will soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny.’ And this month, he warned that ‘if the ayatollahs make a mistake and attack us, they will experience a response they cannot even imagine.’

Netanyahu has repeatedly urged the Iranian people to overthrow its leaders and restore the ties the two countries had before the Islamic revolution of 1979. His rhetoric and actions have been central to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with the potential for further military escalation.

Reza Pahlavi’s Call for Democracy

Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last shah, has positioned himself as a potential leader for a democratic transition in Iran, which he has not visited since before the revolution. The former crown prince entered the global spotlight during the recent protests, where ‘Pahlavi will return’ was among the anti-government slogans chanted nationwide.

The 65-year-old urged Iranians to join the protests and called for demonstrations abroad. Based in the U.S., he has urged Washington to intervene directly to support Iranians seeking to oust the authorities. ‘I am here to guarantee a transition to a secular democratic future,’ Pahlavi told supporters in Munich in February. ‘It is time to end the Islamic republic,’ he said, urging Trump to ‘help.’

Pahlavi remains a polarizing figure, particularly within the Iranian opposition. He has faced criticism for his support for Israel, where he made a highly publicized visit in 2023. Highly critical of repression under the Islamic republic, he has never distanced himself from the abuses of his father’s era.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s Regional Calculus

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the country, shares the view of other Gulf states: they are happy to see a weakened Iran, but fear that destabilizing it could ignite chaos for the region. Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, has a traditionally fraught relationship with Iran, its heavyweight Shiite rival across the Gulf.

Months after becoming crown prince in 2017, Prince Mohammed raised hackles in Tehran when he described Khamenei as a Middle East ‘Hitler.’ But Riyadh and Tehran buried the hatchet when they restored ties in 2023 in a rapprochement brokered by China. Regional stability has become the goal for Saudi Arabia as it pursues an economic transformation aimed at drawing tourism and business, to reduce its reliance on oil.

When a U.S. attack appeared likely in January, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies pressed Washington to hold off, Gulf sources told AFP at the time. Prince Mohammed later pledged not to allow attacks on Iran from Saudi Arabia, which hosts a U.S. base. His actions reflect a delicate balance between regional interests and the potential for wider conflict.