President Donald Trump has once again raised the prospect of the United States leaving NATO, according to the BBC, citing his recent remarks to Britain’s Telegraph newspaper. Trump stated. ‘Oh yes… I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration,’ expressing frustration with NATO allies not joining American military operations against Iran alongside Israel.

Understanding NATO’s Structure and Commitments

Trump’s comments highlight a misunderstanding of how NATO functions, according to the BBC; the alliance’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense, requires consensus to be invoked. The 1949 treaty only referred to crises in Europe and North America, and Article 5 has only been triggered once, following the September 11th attacks in 2001.

Trump also referenced Ukraine. Saying, ‘We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine,’ according to the BBC. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, former President Joe Biden took a leading role in shaping the response of Western governments, believing President Vladimir Putin’s actions threatened them all. NATO provided assistance but avoided direct involvement in the conflict.

Trump’s History with NATO

Even before Trump entered the White House in 2017, he repeatedly dismissed NATO as a ‘paper tiger’ and said it was ‘costing a fortune’ for the US, according to the BBC. In 2019, Trump almost walked out of NATO during his first term in office. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in his memoir, ‘On my Watch,’ that he saw clear signs Trump was preparing to act on his threat to leave.

Stoltenberg recounted how he went on Fox News and credited Trump with pressuring NATO allies to increase their military spending. Trump immediately acknowledged the praise on social media and then did not make the speech the White House had reportedly drafted for a US pullout, according to the BBC.

At the center of Trump’s concerns was the 2014 agreement that countries should spend 2% of their GDP on defense, described at the time as a ‘guideline.’ Military spending has since increased significantly by almost all NATO members, partly in response to Trump’s threats and partly due to Russia’s growing menace.

Current Tensions and Future Outlook

This new crisis will again strengthen the resolve of European countries and Canada to support their own defenses and depend on themselves for their own security, according to the BBC. However, the might of the US military remains major, with the US’s contribution making up some 62% of NATO’s budget and the Pentagon having assets and intelligence capabilities others still can’t match.

Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who calls himself a former supporter of the alliance, has also chimed in, saying, ‘I think there’s no doubt, unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded we are going to have to re-examine that relationship,’ according to the BBC. Referring to US bases in Europe, Rubio said not using them ‘to defend America’s interests’ meant ‘Nato is a one-way street.’

Britain initially refused access to US warplanes but later changed tack, saying bases could be used for ‘defensive operations.’ That delay continues to be derided by Trump and his secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, who have repeatedly taunted Prime Minister Starmer as being ‘no Churchill.’

Italy denied US aircraft permission to land as they were en route to the Middle East for combat operations. Spain has closed its airspace to US planes conducting missions against Iran. Rubio added it was ‘ultimately’ up to the President to decide this issue.

However, it’s not his alone. The US Congress voted at the end of 2023 to prohibit the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without the approval of a two-thirds Senate majority or an act of Congress, according to the BBC.

NATO leaders, and most of all its current secretary general Mark Rutte, will need to spend time again trying to convince and cajole Trump that it’s in his interest, and America’s, to stay. Rutte, like Stoltenberg, is called the ‘Trump whisperer’ for his efforts in public, and private, to keep the unpredictable president on side.

Rutte, the former Dutch leader armed with his toolbox of praise, is widely seen as having played a significant role in pulling Trump back from the brink in his threats to ‘take’ Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of fellow NATO member Denmark, earlier this year. However, Rutte has also come under fire from other NATO states for going too far with his staunch support for a war against Iran, which he said Trump was doing ‘to make the whole world safe.’

His top priority is keeping his 77-year-old coalition intact as it confronts growing threats in Ukraine, the Middle East – and the White House, according to the BBC.