India’s benchmark indices ended last week with modest gains after a sharp rebound on February 20. Value buying in strong stocks lifted the Nifty and Sensex following two days of steep declines exceeding 1% each. Early-week optimism faded into caution as volatility returned in the final sessions.

Five major events could dictate market direction this week. Trump’s tariff plans lead the pack as a potential spark for foreign investor outflows. Officials in Washington signal tougher trade barriers, especially on Asian exports. Rate-sensitive sectors stand vulnerable if foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pull back sharply.

India’s Q3 GDP numbers arrive midweek. Economists expect strong growth to bolster earnings outlooks and fuel bullish bets. A weaker-than-expected print risks broader selling pressure as March nears.

Monthly futures and options expiry adds fuel to the fire. Traders anticipate intense action around Nifty levels of 25,500 on the downside and 25,800 above. Option writers will defend these zones as positions unwind, often leading to wild intraday moves.

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions threaten crude oil prices. A surge past $85 per barrel would inflate India’s import costs and stoke inflation worries. That scenario dims hopes for Reserve Bank of India rate cuts.

Global central bank signals round out the risks. Federal Reserve comments carry weight. Hawkish tones from the Fed or peers could unleash risk-off flows from emerging markets like India, where FIIs already show restraint.

Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, predicts range-bound trading. He cites solid domestic macro data as a buffer against overseas storms. Ajit Mishra at Religare Broking points to last week’s endgame volatility as a caution flag for participants.

Last week’s scorecard reflects the push-pull. Markets climbed early on positive cues but stumbled late. The Nifty closed above key supports, yet global uncertainties loom large.

Trump’s tariff rhetoric has markets on edge. Fresh announcements could hit export-heavy firms hardest. Investors eye U.S. policy shifts set to reshape trade flows.

GDP data holds domestic sway. Q3 figures will test growth narratives amid steady consumption and investment trends. Strong numbers could extend the rally; misses invite profit-taking.

F&O expiry demands vigilance. Historical patterns show amplified swings on such days. Nifty’s battle at 25,500-25,800 will draw intense focus from hedgers and speculators.

Oil prices hover near critical thresholds. U.S.-Iran flare-ups have already nudged benchmarks higher. India’s 85% crude import reliance amplifies the stakes for fiscal balances and monetary policy.

Fed speakers take the stage soon. Markets parse every word for rate path clues. Recent FII caution highlights India’s sensitivity to dollar strength and yield spikes.

Analysts urge selective positioning. Defensive pockets in IT and pharma offer havens. Cyclicals tied to global trade face headwinds unless catalysts align favorably.