TOKYO/TAIPEI/SYDNEY — Japanese lawmakers, reeling from the recent U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, gathered on Monday at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo to question bureaucrats about evacuation plans, energy stocks, and the legal basis for U.S. actions. The meeting, held in a closed-door session, highlighted growing anxieties across Asia about the potential impact of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East on regional security.

Regional Concerns Over Strategic Vacuum

One of the key questions raised at the meeting, according to a politician who attended, was how the region would respond if the U.S. diverted military resources from Asia to the Middle East. This concern is particularly acute for Japan and South Korea, which host significant U.S. military bases that serve as a deterrent against China’s growing military assertiveness and North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. The island of Taiwan, a self-governing region claimed by China, is also heavily reliant on U.S. military support.

Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker in Taiwan and a member of its parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee, said, ‘We hope this operation is fast, limited, and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia.’ He warned that a prolonged conflict could harm ‘stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific,’ adding that Taipei must prepare for increased ‘coercion’ from Beijing while the U.S. is preoccupied.

Trump, who has indicated that U.S. operations in the Middle East may last four to five weeks, but could be extended, is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March. However, Beijing has not confirmed the visit.

Strained U.S. Military Presence in Asia

A Japanese politician who attended the meeting said that a top foreign ministry official responded that Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that it would not shift U.S. military assets. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about 40% of U.S. navy ships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East.

These include the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and at least six missile destroyers based in Pacific ports such as California, Hawaii, and Japan. The only U.S. carrier deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance in Yokosuka, Japan.

Bryan Clark, a former U.S. defense official specializing in naval operations at the Hudson Institute, noted that ‘The U.S. Navy is stretched thin.’ He added that if the conflict with Iran drags on, there is a ‘realistic possibility’ that the U.S. could draw down its naval strength in Asia to reinforce the Middle East.

The Iran conflict is also depleting U.S. munitions reserves, a concern for the U.S. because rebuilding these reserves in the Indo-Pacific helps deter China from military action on Taiwan. A U.S. official, who requested anonymity, said that Japan has already faced delays in the delivery of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the U.S. and could fall further behind schedule.

Strategic Shifts and Regional Implications

It has only been three months since Washington revealed a new security strategy that positioned the Indo-Pacific as the key ‘geopolitical battleground’ and prioritized deterring a conflict over Taiwan. Since then, Trump has launched military operations in Venezuela, threatened to annex Greenland, and partnered with Israel to conduct air strikes against Iran.

While some in Asia fear Trump may be diverting attention from the Indo-Pacific, analysts suggest that Beijing has little to celebrate at least for now. By attacking Venezuela and Iran, Trump has weakened two of China’s allies that supplied it with cheap oil, boosting its economy. Some analysts even suggest that Trump’s military actions are part of a larger strategy to focus on containing China.

However, the longer Trump’s involvement in the Middle East persists, the more Beijing could benefit. A Japanese ruling party lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, ‘The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources toward dealing with China.’ But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to shift.’

Analysts note that China has previously capitalized on U.S. distractions, such as during the Afghanistan war, to rapidly militarize its South China Sea islands. Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer with the Royal Australian Navy and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, said, ‘Beijing will be watching closely.’