Vice President JD Vance has topped the straw poll at the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), one of the largest gatherings of the right-wing in the United States. The poll. Held during the four-day conference. Asked attendees who they would prefer to lead the Republican Party ticket in the 2028 election, as Vance received 53 percent of the votes cast by nearly 1,600 attendees, according to Al Jazeera.

Marco Rubio Gains Ground

While Vance remained the top choice. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made notable progress this year, securing 35 percent of the vote; this is a significant jump from last year, when Rubio tied for fourth place with just 3 percent. Rubio, a former senator from Florida, is seen as a more hawkish alternative to Vance, particularly in foreign policy matters.

Last year’s CPAC straw poll. Conducted within weeks of Trump beginning his second term, showed Vance with 61 percent support, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon with 12 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7 percent. Rubio and Representative Elise Stefanik both earned 3 percent, but this year’s results reflect a shift in the political landscape, with Rubio gaining momentum among attendees.

CPAC Attendance and Political Trends

CPAC, an annual conference, typically attracts attendees who are more aligned with the right of the political spectrum. This year’s event featured speakers such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, the sons of Brazil’s former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who was imprisoned in September 2025 for attempting to subvert his country’s democracy.

The straw poll comes at a critical time for the Republican Party, with less than eight months until the November 2026 midterm elections. Republicans are hoping to defend their congressional majorities at the ballot box, but President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been on a downward trend since his return to office in 2025.

A recent survey by Reuters and Ipsos found that only 36 percent of U.S. citizens approved of Trump’s job performance, a new low, as Factors contributing to the decline include the ongoing war in Iran and economic frustrations, such as rising gas prices linked to the conflict. Trump has hinted at seeking a third term, but U.S. law prevents modern presidents from serving more than two terms. His second presidency is set to end in 2028.

Vance and Rubio: Political Divisions

Vance, a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing a more isolationist branch of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) base. He has generally opposed U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts but has supported Trump’s decision to join Israel in joint strikes on Iran. His stance has positioned him as a key figure in the Republican Party’s evolving political landscape.

Rubio, by contrast, has a longer political career and is viewed as more hawkish, particularly in matters related to regime change in countries like Cuba, his family’s ancestral home. He served as a senator for Florida from 2011 until his confirmation as secretary of state in 2025. Both men had previously criticized Trump before joining his administration. Vance once called Trump “unfit” for office, and Rubio referred to him as a “con artist” and an “embarrassment” during the 2016 Republican presidential nomination race.

CPAC traditionally does not survey participants about who should be president when a Republican is already in the Oval Office. However, the straw polls held before and after Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021, showed a noticeable realignment within the Republican Party. In the decade leading up to the 2016 election, moderate Republican Mitt Romney and libertarian Rand Paul consistently won CPAC straw polls.

Since Trump’s first term, however, he has dominated the polls. Despite his 2020 election defeat, Trump still garnered the most backing in 2021’s straw poll, with 55 percent support. His numbers climbed each successive year, leading to his re-election in 2024. Experts have noted that the Republican Party has largely consolidated around Trump’s politics, with moderate and critical voices becoming increasingly marginalized.

The CPAC straw poll, however, is not always accurate. Ahead of Trump’s victory in 2016, the majority of straw poll participants backed Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to be the next president. Trump came in third place with 15 percent support, trailing Rubio at 30 percent. This highlights the unpredictability of the polls, which are informal and not necessarily indicative of broader public opinion.

With less than eight months until the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a key moment in determining its future direction. While Trump remains a central figure, the rise of figures like Vance and Rubio signals a potential shift within the party. The coming months will be critical in shaping the Republican Party’s platform and leadership.