Bahrain’s interior ministry announced on March 8 that an Iranian drone attack damaged a desalination plant, a critical piece of infrastructure for the arid region. The attack, which comes amid rising tensions in the Gulf, has sparked fears that water systems could become a new battleground in regional conflicts.

Desalination as a Strategic Target

Desalination plants are vital to the Middle East, where water availability is about 10 times lower than the global average, according to the World Bank. These facilities provide the majority of drinking water in several countries, including 42 per cent in the United Arab Emirates, 70 per cent in Saudi Arabia, 86 per cent in Oman, and 90 per cent in Kuwait, as reported by the French Institute of International Relations.

The recent strike on Bahrain’s facility, however, did not affect water supplies or network capacity, according to Bahrain’s national communication office. Despite this, the incident has highlighted the vulnerability of these essential systems.

Water economist Esther Crauser-Delbourg warned that attacks on such infrastructure could trigger a conflict far more severe than current hostilities. She said, ‘Over there, without desalinated water there, there is nothing.’ The threat is especially acute in major cities like Dubai and Riyadh, which rely heavily on desalinated water.

Historical Precedents and Vulnerabilities

Desalination plants have long been recognized as strategic targets. A 2010 CIA report warned that disrupting such facilities in Arab countries could have more serious consequences than the loss of any other industry or commodity. Similarly, a 2008 US diplomatic cable, released by WikiLeaks, stated that severe damage to Saudi Arabia’s Jubail desalination plant could force Riyadh to evacuate within a week.

Experts note that these plants are not only vulnerable to military strikes but also to power outages and contamination of seawater, including oil spills. Philippe Bourdeaux, regional director for Africa and the Middle East at French firm Veolia, said, ‘We have strengthened access security and controls in the immediate vicinity of the plants.’ His company supplies desalinated water to regions including Jubail in Saudi Arabia and Muscat, Sur and Salalah in Oman.

Bourdeaux added that some countries have begun placing missile batteries around major desalination plants to counter drone and missile threats. ‘The recent events are of course prompting us to be extremely vigilant,’ he said.

Despite these measures, the threat is not new. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have previously targeted desalination plants in Saudi Arabia, while a Saudi-led coalition has retaliated by striking water infrastructure in Yemen, according to the Pacific Institute, which tracks water-related conflicts.

Implications of a Water Crisis

Water shortages could have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only daily life but also the economy. Crauser-Delbourg said, ‘We could potentially see major cities facing an exodus. And rationing.’ The impact on tourism, industry, and data centers, which consume large amounts of water for cooling, could be severe.

However, some safeguards exist. Desalination plants are often interconnected, which can limit the impact if one facility shuts down. Most also hold reserves equivalent to two to seven days of water consumption, enough to prevent shortages as long as disruptions are not prolonged.

The recent strike in Bahrain has raised questions about the future of water infrastructure in the region. With the Middle East already facing one of the most severe water crises in the world, the targeting of desalination plants could become a new flashpoint in ongoing conflicts.

As the situation evolves, experts are closely monitoring the developments. The next steps could include increased security measures, international diplomatic efforts, and potential changes in regional policies aimed at protecting critical infrastructure from future attacks.