German voters in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt will cast their ballots Sunday in an election that could mark a historic shift in German politics. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is positioned to become the first far-right party to gain state-level power since World War II, according to recent polling and reports.

AfD Leads in Polls

Recent surveys indicate that the AfD leads with 40 percent support, ahead of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 23 percent. The AfD has maintained a strong lead for months, with a possible chance of securing an absolute majority if smaller parties fail to clear the 5 percent threshold required to enter the state parliament.

Despite the lead, the outcome is not guaranteed — an administration led by the CDU and incumbent state premier Sven Schulze remains the most likely scenario if the AfD does not achieve a majority. However, if the AfD does win, weeks of coalition talks could follow, depending on which parties meet the 5 percent minimum.

AfD’s Ambition for National Power

AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, a former CDU member, has predicted an absolute majority for the party, which he says would lead to a national victory in the 2029 federal elections. Siegmund was named “Germany’s most dangerous man” by the influential magazine Der Spiegel.

Speaking to the German tabloid Bild, Siegmund said, “It was the others who erected the firewalls. If no one wants to work with us, then we’ll just have to do it alone.” An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass the “firewall” noncooperation policy set by mainstream parties, a strategy the far-right party has already employed at the local level.

For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election represents a major step toward its broader goal of securing national power in 2029; the CDU, however, is led by deeply unpopular German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has faced significant political challenges.

Merz Calls for Engagement

A week before the election, Merz addressed a local campaign rally in Lower Saxony, urging fellow politicians to engage with the AfD more effectively; “We must address the issues at hand. We must also address our choice of words,” Merz said, referencing a controversial statement by the AfD’s state leader in Saxony-Anhalt, Martin Reichardt.

Reichardt had previously told the AfD’s youth organisation that Germany had become “a lazy, anti-social bum reeking of dope.” The statement drew significant criticism and highlighted the tensions between the two parties.

As the election approached, thousands of demonstrators gathered for a festival in support of democracy the night before the vote — Organisers estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000 people attended the event, showing strong public interest in the election outcome.

Initial results are expected to be announced at approximately 16:00 GMT (6pm local time) on Sunday; the outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt election could have far-reaching implications for German politics, particularly if the AfD secures a historic win.