Brazilians are voting in a presidential runoff election on Sunday, with Lula da Silva seeking an unprecedented comeback against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The two candidates are virtually tied, according to recent polling, after a first-round vote that saw a gap of less than 2% between them.

Runoff campaign focused on turnout and fears of authoritarianism

Lula has spent much of the runoff campaign emphasizing the importance of voter turnout, which reached a record high in the first round and disproportionately affected his supporters. He has also sought to raise concerns about what a return to power by a member of the Bolsonaro family might mean for democracy and social rights.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for his role in attempting to overturn the 2022 election. Flávio has promised to pardon his father if elected and has pledged to “change the constitution and re-democratise this country.”

Divided voter base and polarizing policies

“We’re facing two completely different projects for the country,” said voter Nuno Rau, 63, an architect and writer. “One points towards the end of social rights and the end of democracy itself; on the other side is someone who fought for income distribution and free public education.”

Aparecida Moreira, a 62-year-old lawyer, is supporting Flávio Bolsonaro because of his proposed “iron fist” security policies, including building five “mega-prisons” inspired by those of El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele. She supports chemical castration for rapists, calling it “the worst crime.”

Flávio has also drawn comparisons to Alexandre de Moraes, a justice associated with Lula by Bolsonaro supporters, despite not having been appointed by him. Moreira said voting for Lula would be the same as voting for Moraes.

Campaign strategies and undecided voters

Both candidates held large rallies in major cities like Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Belo Horizonte. Analysts said the election is likely to be decided by a small group of voters who identify with neither candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro began the runoff with a lead and the support of most other defeated candidates, but his poll numbers have stagnated while Lula gained momentum. Political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles said this shift was due in part to a growing fear of a Bolsonaro return to power and controversies surrounding the senator’s alleged corruption and money laundering.

Lula’s campaign also benefited from student-led protests across the country, which helped boost his visibility and support.

Analysts warn that if Lula overturns his first-round defeat, Flávio Bolsonaro could follow in his father’s footsteps and refuse to concede the election. Some also fear that Donald Trump, a long-time ally of the Bolsonaro family, could refuse to recognize the result.

“Trump wants to ‘colonise’ all of Latin America in pursuit of its own interests,” said Telles. She added that Brazil is one of the few countries in the region still offering resistance to Trump’s influence, as right-wing candidates have won all seven presidential elections in Latin America since he began his second term.

“A Bolsonaro victory would mean losing Brazil to a model of autocracy backed by the US,” she added.