According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei and a White House official, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran entered into force after an electronic signing by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the deal, announced early Thursday, makes a formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Switzerland unnecessary. The agreement includes an end to military operations, a U.S. naval blockade lifted within 30 days, and no-charge commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days.

Shipping Resumes, Oil Prices Drop

Shipping data shows that several Iranian oil tankers have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz following the framework deal, according to TMGM, and this movement has increased expectations that Middle East oil supply will return to the market, potentially lowering energy prices. On the other hand. Brent crude oil price has dropped from a high of $114 on May 4 to $91 currently, according to TradingView — this price drop may continue after forming a double-top pattern amid the U.S.-Iran deal.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Oil Price Drop

Technical analysis indicates a potential steeper drop in Brent crude oil prices; the price has fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of $96 and the 50-day moving average of $99. The RSI has also dropped below the neutral point of 50, reaching its lowest point since December 18; a double-top pattern formed at $114.97 and a neckline at $86.15 suggests a target price of $58, according to TradingView.

Deal Details and Political Reactions

The U.S.-Iran deal will see Iran allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without charging tolls; the U.S. will end its blockade and ease some Iranian sanctions, enabling Iran to sell millions of barrels of oil daily. Iran will also gain access to some of its frozen funds abroad; However, Trump has yet to sign the 60-day ceasefire, and some of his closest allies have criticized its outline. This includes figures like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, who have advocated for more military action.

Trump admitted he wanted to avoid an ‘economic catastrophe’ amid the fallout from three months of conflict and the fragility of the two-month deal, according to Source 1. The MoU is not a permanent nuclear settlement but includes immediate practical provisions such as ending military operations and lifting the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains firm as Trump’s Iran comments reduce risk sentiment, according to TMGM; the prospect of lower energy prices supports risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie, although uncertainty remains high. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision, expected to keep interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Short-term technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair shows a mild bullish bias, with the RSI around 55 indicating steady rather than impulsive momentum, as Resistance and support levels have been identified, but a break below 0.7054 could lead to a deeper corrective pullback, according to TMGM.