Insider Trading Allegations and Financial Penalty

The online prediction market platform Kalshi said it banned Santos for life after its compliance department found reasonable cause to believe he engaged in insider trading when he bet against his attendance at the speech. According to La Nación, Santos made a $17,839 profit from his trading activity.

Kalshi also imposed a $71,356 penalty against Santos, according to La Nación. The company stated that Santos was prohibited from trading in the market over whether he would attend the event because he was capable of influencing the outcome.

On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75 percent. However, minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport, prompting accusations of another scheme, according to La Nación.

Failed Cooperation and Public Response

Kalshi said Santos received the lifetime ban after he failed to cooperate with its investigation, according to NPR. The company found that Santos shared social media posts expressing excitement about attending the State of the Union, while simultaneously placing bets that he would not be in attendance.

In response, Santos posted on X: “Thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for,” according to NPR. The ban, effective last Friday, prevents Santos from accessing Kalshi’s platform directly or indirectly.

Broader Enforcement action on Prediction Markets

Kalshi’s enforcement actions extend beyond Santos. The platform also announced actions against North Carolina Congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for wagering on her own campaign and against billionaire Stephen Cloobeck for betting on his now-abandoned run for governor of California, according to NPR.

The enforcement action comes amid concerns from election integrity experts who fear prediction markets could create chaos during the upcoming November elections. Kalshi’s actions suggest a broader effort to enforce compliance and maintain trust in the integrity of its platform.