Tensions are escalating in northern Ethiopia, with fears of renewed conflict pushing thousands from Tigray to flee their homes. The region, which endured a brutal two-year civil war that ended in November 2022, is now facing a new wave of uncertainty as disputes over territory and political power threaten to reignite hostilities.

Escalating Displacement and Economic Strain

Many residents in Tigray are leaving the region, with those who can afford it opting to fly out, while others take buses to the capital, Addis Ababa. The economic strain is evident as prices of essential goods have skyrocketed, and banks now impose a daily withdrawal limit of around 2,000 birr ($13; £10) per person due to a cash shortage reminiscent of the war years.

Residents are also facing additional charges for large electronic transfers, a situation that echoes the financial instability of the conflict period. The region, which had seen a return to normalcy after the African Union-mediated peace deal, is now experiencing a breakdown in trust between the warring parties.

Unraveling Peace Deal and Territorial Disputes

The 2022 peace deal, brokered in Pretoria, was signed without the participation of Eritrea and the Amhara region, both of which had fought alongside the Ethiopian government during the conflict. Since then, relations between Ethiopia and both Eritrea and the Amhara have deteriorated, adding to the instability in the region.

The current dispute centers around the future of disputed areas in Tigray, particularly western Tigray, which was occupied by Amhara forces early in the war. Around a million people fled the area and have been living in makeshift camps, unable to return home. The recent decision by Ethiopia’s election board to allow disputed areas to vote independently has further angered Tigrayans.

According to TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremicheal, war is now ‘looming’ over Tigray, and the people will be ‘under the obligation to resist aggression and defend themselves to maintain their existence.’

Political and Diplomatic Fractures

The TPLF, which was designated a terrorist group during the war, seeks to have its legal status as a political party reinstated. However, the electoral board recently revoked the TPLF’s license, preventing it from contesting upcoming elections. The party has also split into factions, with some members forming a new party, further complicating the political landscape.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending the 20-year border war with Eritrea, now faces a different challenge. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting TPLF hardliners, a claim Eritrea denies. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated, with Ethiopia pushing for control of the Red Sea port of Assab, which Eritrea controls.

Ethiopia’s growing tensions with Eritrea are compounded by internal unrest in the Amhara region, where a low-level rebellion has been ongoing since 2023. The region’s fighters, who supported the government during the Tigray war, now seek to have western Tigray formally recognized as part of Amhara. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of involvement in this unrest, a claim Eritrea denies.

As the June elections approach, the situation in Tigray remains highly volatile, with the risk of a full-scale conflict between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, or between Ethiopia and Eritrea, growing ever more pronounced.