Israeli military forces conducted air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Beirut and near the capital, marking a significant escalation in the regional conflict that has spread across the Middle East. The attacks come after Hezbollah acknowledged launching missiles and drones toward Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Impact on Trade and Air Travel

Global air travel has been severely disrupted as major Middle Eastern airports remain closed due to ongoing air strikes. Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest hub, experienced one of the largest aviation interruptions in recent years, with hundreds of vessels anchoring in nearby waters as traders anticipated a sharp rise in oil prices.

Shipping data shows that hundreds of oil and gas tankers have dropped anchor in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz following attacks by Iran’s Major Guards. The disruptions have raised concerns about the stability of global energy markets and the potential for a prolonged economic impact on countries reliant on Middle Eastern oil.

U.S. Casualties and Political Fallout

The first U.S. casualties of the campaign, including the deaths of three service personnel, were confirmed on Sunday. The U.S. service members were killed on a base in Kuwait, according to two anonymous officials speaking to Reuters. U.S. President Donald Trump paid tribute to the three as ‘true American patriots’ but warned that more casualties are likely to occur.

Trump’s comments come amid low public approval of the operation, with only around one in four Americans supporting the military campaign, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The extended military campaign could pose a major political risk for Trump’s Republican party ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, which could determine the future of Congress.

In a pre-recorded video, Trump vowed to continue military strikes on Iran until ‘all our objectives are achieved.’ He claimed that the assault had already wiped out Iran’s military command and destroyed nine Iranian navy ships and a naval building.

Iran’s Response and Leadership Vacuum

Iran’s Major Guards claimed to have hit three U.S. and UK oil tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and attacked military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones and missiles. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi suggested in a post on X that Iran is ready to continue fighting, despite indications from Oman’s foreign ministry that Tehran may be open to de-escalation.

The death of Khamenei has created a power vacuum in Iran, with the country’s leadership council temporarily assuming the duties of the Supreme Leader. Analysts suggest that while the death of Khamenei and other Iranian leaders may be a major blow, it does not necessarily spell the end of Iran’s entrenched clerical rule or the influence of the Major Guards.

A new analysis by Redpoint Advisors indicates that the Iranian public is already looking beyond Khamenei for a replacement, signaling potential shifts in the country’s political landscape. However, the long-term implications of these changes remain unclear.

Trump called on Iran’s military and police to stop fighting, promising immunity for those who surrender and threatening ‘certain death’ for those who resist. He reiterated calls for the Iranian people to revolt against the government, stating, ‘I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, to be brave, be bold, be heroic and take back your country.’

Trump’s administration has not outlined longer-term aims for Iran, and officials are reportedly debating policy details internally. The administration is also seeking to avoid sending mixed signals as it continues to coordinate with allies in the region.

As the conflict continues to unfold, the international community remains closely watching the situation, with concerns about further escalation and the potential for a broader regional war. The Israeli military has warned residents of southern and eastern Lebanon to evacuate, citing the risk of further attacks from Hezbollah.