Marine Le Pen is set to find out on Tuesday whether she can run for the French presidency in 2027 after a Paris appeal court decides if an embezzlement conviction against her will stand. The ruling will determine her political future and effectively kick off the presidential race, which begins with the first round on 18 April 2027.

What is the appeal about?

Le Pen was barred from public office for five years on 31 March 2025 after a court found her guilty of embezzling €1.4m in European Parliament (EP) funds from 2004 to 2016. The funds were used to pay her own party employees instead of parliamentary assistants. Le Pen was an MEP from 2004 to 2017 and was given a four-year jail term, with two years suspended and two to be served at home with an electronic tag.

She was found to have either approved or tolerated the fake-jobs scheme, which ruled her out of the 2027 election. During the appeal. Which was heard in January and February, Le Pen denied organizing the scam but admitted to a mistake that led to some parliamentary aides working for the benefit of the party.

Who is Marine Le Pen?

Marine Le Pen is the youngest daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen and took over the leadership of the far-right National Front in 2011 with a mission to “detoxify” her father’s brand. In 2015. She expelled him from the party over his views on the Holocaust and later rebranded the party as Rassemblement National (RN) — In 2024, she led RN to its best-ever election performance, securing 143 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

Le Pen has portrayed herself as a victim of French justice, claiming a “difference in treatment” from other leaders whose parties were found guilty of fraud. However, the original trial’s judges found that she had “authoritatively and with determination embraced the system established by her father” and was “at the heart” of the fake-jobs scheme.

What are the possible verdicts?

If Le Pen is acquitted. She will be clear to run for the presidency with her reputation intact. However, this verdict is considered unlikely. If the court finds her guilty and bars her from office for more than two years, she will not be able to stand for election because the clock has continued ticking since the five-year ban was handed down.

If she is handed a ban of two years or less, she will be free to run. If the court follows prosecutors’ recommendations and the four-year jail term remains, she would face one year with an electronic tag rather than two. This is a key issue for Le Pen, who has stated that a presidential candidate must be completely free to move about and hold rallies.

She could still challenge a guilty verdict at France’s top court, the Court of Cassation, but this process would take several months and hold her back from campaigning. Le Pen has indicated she would not pursue this option. Even if she is cleared, prosecutors might decide to go to the top court.

On Tuesday night, after the verdict is delivered, Le Pen will make her intentions clear on the main 20:00 news programme on TV channel TF1.