Even with dealer lots full and pandemic-era shortages long gone, buying a new vehicle in America costs more than ever. Buyers face sticker shock from prices 30 percent above 2019 levels. Auto loans keep growing longer and larger just to make deals work.

Cox Automotive reported the out-the-door price crossed $50,000 in September before settling at $49,191 in January, the highest for that typically slow month. J.D. Power pegged the average monthly payment at slightly more than $800. About one in five new loans now carries payments of $1,000 or higher, with S&P Global forecasting that share could double by year’s end.

“We are approaching a threshold that a lot of people don’t want to go over,” said Patrick Manzi, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association. Industry leaders raised alarms at the 2026 North American Dealers Association conference in Las Vegas this month. Affordability topped discussions as severely delinquent auto loan rates hit pandemic-era peaks.

Mike Manley, chief executive of AutoNation, told analysts on an earnings call earlier this month, “There is no doubt that affordability is front of mind.” Tyson Jominy, senior vice president for automaker data and insights at J.D. Power, posed the key question: “Is there a breaking point where you just push prices past what the average consumer can afford?”

Sales held up last year at 16.2 million vehicles, the best since the pandemic. But NADA projects a drop to 16 million this year. Carmakers ditched cheap sedans years ago. The Nissan Versa, last new car under $20,000 at $17,390, ended production in December. Gone too are the Mitsubishi Mirage, Kia Rio, Hyundai Accent and Chevrolet Spark.

“Americans just don’t want them,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds. Demand shifted hard to SUVs and crossovers. Light trucks now claim eight of every 10 sales, with crossover SUVs like the Honda CR-V making up nearly half the market. A decade ago, cars and light trucks split evenly.

Patrick Manzi of NADA called $30,000 the new affordability line. Consumers who shop every six to eight years get hit hardest. “It’s not something you shop for every day,” said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. Caldwell added, “That’s what we hear from so many consumers. People don’t like it. They’re not happy with how much cars cost.”

A TransUnion survey listed affordability as the top barrier for would-be buyers. Luxury models with fat margins keep profits flowing despite the squeeze on entry-level shoppers. Vehicles over $70,000 linger on lots about as long as cheaper ones. Buyers with household incomes above $150,000 snagged 29 percent of purchases last year, up from 18 percent in 2020, according to S&P Global.

“Wealthier customers are driving this,” Manzi said. New car buyers skew older too. Nearly half of 2025 registrations went to people 55 and up. The average buyer age hit 51 last year, per J.D. Power, up from 50 pre-pandemic and 43 a quarter-century ago.

Loans average 68.8 months now, with 84-month terms at 11.7 percent of the market last year—nearly double 2019’s share. Severely delinquent loans, 90 days past due, reached 8.6 percent early last year, matching 2020 highs and post-2008 crisis levels, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data shows. Struggling borrowers have low credit scores.

“That’s that K-shaped economy. Wages haven’t kept up,” Manzi said. Prices rose despite automakers eating most costs from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, analysts said. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds warned, “At some point we’ll have to see tariff price increases.”

U.S. makers must fight affordability woes to block cheap Chinese rivals, said Keating of Cox Automotive. Canada eased tariffs on Chinese EVs recently. Signs of response emerged. Chevrolet pushes the Trax crossover starting at $21,700, named Best Crossover SUV for 2026 by Car and Driver. Ford’s Maverick pickup begins at $28,145; the company plans several more models under $40,000 by 2030.

Honda sales vice president Lance Woelfer said, “With average new car prices hitting record highs across the industry, cost is a growing concern, and we want the Honda and Acura brands to continue to be recognized for delivering incredible value.” Jominy noted small SUVs as “the new front door to the industry.” No $20,000 cars loom on the horizon.