Internal and External Challenges

Once in power, Bardella may attempt to form a “union of the right” both domestically and within the European Union, as However, an RN-led France pushing nationalist policies on migration, energy, and defense is likely to clash with European partners, according to the ECFR analysis.

Inside France, Bardella faces challenges including inexperience, lack of depth, and internal contradictions. The enduring influence of Marine Le Pen, who is currently banned from running for office, could also complicate his leadership. Bardella would likely be forced to improvise in response to crises, according to the ECFR.

Economic and Political Tensions

Economic uncertainties could also influence the election outcome. The French economy is under pressure, with an inflation rate of 2% and a debt-to-GDP ratio that limits growth potential, according to Agenda Pública. These economic conditions may affect voter sentiment toward RN’s policies, especially regarding deficit reduction and public debt management.

Michel Houellebecq once quipped that “France has a talent for depression,” and current analysts suggest that an eventual RN victory would cause “the greatest crisis in the EU’s history and amount to Frexit by stealth,” according to CIDOB. Bardella, aged 30, is currently France’s most popular politician, with recent polls giving him about 35% of voting support, twice that of his nearest rival, Edouard Philippe.

International Reactions and Strategies

El Confidencial notes that Bardella could be a central figure in changing the European Union, especially if he becomes the leader of the second-largest EU country. His campaign of normalizing the RN brand has helped reduce media hostility and ease public fears about the party’s governance. Bardella’s appeal now extends beyond traditional working-class areas to parts of the French elite.

Meanwhile, Agenda Pública highlights the need for immediate action by the French government to counter RN’s rise. The prime minister has warned of increased social cuts and rising fuel prices, which could impact voter behavior. A potential RN victory raises questions about what policies should be implemented immediately to prevent the party from gaining power.