PATNA — Bihar’s ruling NDA alliance holds a clear edge in the Rajya Sabha polls for five seats, with 202 MLAs ready to deliver four victories. The opposition RJD-led INDIA bloc, short on numbers, eyes the fifth seat and floats the idea of a contest to test the coalition’s grip.

Election Commission officials announced the nationwide polls for 37 seats Wednesday, including Bihar’s share. Nominations open February 26 in the state, with a March 5 deadline and withdrawals allowed until March 9. Each seat demands 41 MLA votes under the quota formula.

NDA partners—BJP with 89 seats, JD(U) with 85, LJP(RV) with 19, HAM(S) with 5, and RLM with 4—total 202 lawmakers. That math locks in four seats, officials said. A senior state assembly official noted the coalition needs just three or four more votes for a fifth if a contest erupts with over five candidates.

“NDA can easily win four,” the official said. “The fifth hinges on opposition moves. More than five nominees trigger a vote; otherwise, it’s unopposed.”

State BJP spokesperson Danish Iqbal confirmed preparations. “We’ll file for four candidates soon, decided jointly by allies,” he said. “Fifth seat decision comes in days.” Insiders point to lobbying among partners. BJP and JD(U) stand to claim the lion’s share, though LJP(RV) pushes hard for one, citing its 19 MLAs and five Lok Sabha MPs. HAM(S) founder and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi has voiced similar demands repeatedly.

Speculation swirls around candidates. Outgoing members include RJD’s Amarendra Dhari Singh and Prem Chand Gupta; JD(U)’s Deputy Rajya Sabha Chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh, Union Minister Ram Nath Thakur, and RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha. Sources say Kushwaha seeks re-election. BJP eyes MLA Nitin Nabin, its new national president from Bankipur, as a nominee.

RJD-led INDIA bloc musters only 35 MLAs. State RJD president Chittaranjan Gagan banks on history. “Past polls saw no contests—NDA and opposition shared unopposed wins,” he said. “We expect one seat this time too.”

Opposition totals 41 MLAs statewide, matching the quota, if AIMIM’s five lawmakers and BSP’s single seat join. RJD insiders call larger unity essential against an NDA fifth candidate. AIMIM state president and MLA Iman dismissed overtures as premature. “Offer us the joint opposition slot first,” he said. “We’ll consider then.” AIMIM skipped alliance with INDIA in the 2020 assembly polls.

BSP state president Shankar Mahto deferred to party chief Mayawati. “We’ll follow her directive,” he said.

A NDA leader predicted drama. “Both sides want that fifth seat. Clarity soon.” The 243-member assembly’s fractured opposition leaves RJD’s bid precarious without full backing.