Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party appears ready to secure victory in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, with an exit poll indicating that the party is set to win 38.1% of the vote, according to Alpha Research, as reported by the BBC.

Exit Poll Shows Progressive Bulgaria Leading

The exit poll. Conducted by Sofia-based Alpha Research, showed that Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party is on course to win the country’s parliamentary election, according to Reuters. The results, published hours after voting closed, show the party leading with 38.1% of the vote, while former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov’s conservative GERB party trails with 15.9% of the vote.

Three or four other parties are expected to cross the 4% threshold and enter Parliament, according to the BBC. The election was called after the previous government attempted to push through a controversial budget in December, prompting mass demonstrations which Radev, as president, supported.

Radev’s Victory Speech and Future Plans

Radev, who stepped down after nine years as president in January to form his new movement, gave a victory speech stating, ‘People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. I thank them for their trust.’ He promised to build ‘a strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe.’

Radev emphasized that ‘What Europe needs right now is critical thinking, pragmatic actions and good results, especially to build a new security architecture and … recover its industrial power and competitiveness. That will be the main contribution of Bulgaria to its European mission.’

He is seen as a pragmatic, somewhat pro-Russian leader, who has criticized EU sanctions and called for constructive dialogue with the Kremlin. He opposes Bulgarian military support for Ukraine and has frequently spoken out against the sale of the Bulgarian stockpile of Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine, on the grounds that they prolong a war Ukraine cannot win.

Bulgaria’s Arms Industry and Radev’s Stance

Bulgaria is an important supplier of ammunition and explosives to Ukraine, through third countries, especially neighboring Romania. The war has given a boost to an arms industry which has struggled since the Soviet era.

In October 2025, the German arms company Rheinmetall announced a €1bn joint venture with VMZ, a factory in Sopot, two hours drive east of the Bulgarian capital Sofia, to produce up to 100,000 155mm shells a year. A separate gunpowder factory will also be built in Sopot. Rheinmetall will have a 51% share in the company.

Radev took credit for inviting the CEO of Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, to Bulgaria in March 2025. ‘Bulgaria is becoming part of the European defence ecosystem,’ Radev said during a visit to the Rheinmetall headquarters in Unterluss, Germany, in August 2025.

His position, as head of government, seems likely to be similar to that of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico – critical of EU support, but not imposing a veto on the manufacture of arms by private companies for Ukraine. Radev said he is looking for coalition partners, indicating that a minority government is also an option.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and adopted the euro as its currency in January this year. The country has seen fragmented parliaments in recent years, with coalitions failing to last more than a year since 2021.