SEOUL — A former Democratic Party leader’s vision of decades-long rule appears set to materialize amid crippling infighting in South Korea’s opposition People Power Party. Yoon Suk-yeol, the ex-president indicted as an “insurrection leader,” received a life sentence on Feb. 19 from a first-trial court. The ruling found he mobilized military and police to blockade the National Assembly and arrest politicians, an act deemed a riot to subvert the constitution.

The verdict has deepened rifts inside the People Power Party. Leader Jang Dong-hyeok held a press conference the next day, insisting on Yoon’s presumption of innocence until appeals conclude. “We must decisively cut ties with forces that prioritize distancing from former President Yoon,” Jang said, according to party statements. Yoon’s allies echoed this, calling his Dec. 3, 2024, emergency martial law declaration a “decision to save the nation.”

Party approval ratings have nearly halved since Yoon’s 2022 presidential win, where he took 48.56% of the vote—edging Lee Jae-myung by just 247,077 votes, or 0.73 percentage points. Moderates and rational conservatives have fled, leaving “Yoon Again” hardliners dominant. Lawmakers from the Yeongnam region reported dire public mood during Lunar New Year holidays. Elderly voters, they said, voice apathy: “not bothering to vote.” Some insiders whisper the party might fare better collapsing entirely to rebuild.

History offers stark parallels. In early 2018, after Park Geun-hye’s impeachment gutted conservatives, late Democratic leader Lee Hae-chan proposed a “Democratic Party long-term governance theory.” It evolved from 20 to 50 years, rallying supporters. That June, Democrats claimed 14 of 17 metropolitan and provincial governor seats. Liberty Korea—the People Power Party’s predecessor—held only Daegu and Gyeongbuk, with Won Hee-ryong taking Jeju as an independent. Democrats won 11 of 12 National Assembly by-elections, losing solely in Gimcheon, North Gyeongsang Province.

Conservatives then cut swift ties with Park post-impeachment. Yoon’s fate might have differed without Moon Jae-in’s failed bid to oust Prosecutor General Yoon Suk-yeol via Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae over the Cho Kuk scandal. Now, under President Lee Jae-myung, the government amplifies the “insurrection frame” to cement legislative and administrative power. Bills to reshape justice, enable constitutional appeals and expand the Justice Ministry—all unrelated to livelihoods—aim to bend courts to party will, critics charge.

Despite headwinds like sluggish domestic recovery, soaring prices and the “Myeong-Cheong rivalry” in ruling circles, local elections on June 3 look like a Democratic lock. A semiconductor super cycle lifts stocks, but external security and trade woes linger. People Power Party leaders face a crossroads: rebuild or fracture. Factionalism today rivals 2018’s low point, when Democrats’ dominance seemed assured. After polls close, questions swirl whether the party survives intact.