Successful Mission, Lingering Threats

On Sunday, Trump claimed that the rescue of the second crew member of an F-15 downed over Iran marked a dramatic and successful operation, which he said ‘proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority.’ According to sources, Trump’s declaration came swiftly after the recovery mission, which took place in Iranian territory.

Despite the mission’s success. Observers have painted a more complicated picture of what this means for the US in Iran. The events of the past few days—during which two aircraft were downed and at least one helicopter was hit by gunfire—highlight that threats to US aircraft and personnel remain even after weeks of heavy US and Israeli strikes against Iran’s military infrastructure.

According to several Washington sources who spoke to the BBC, the loss of aircraft and the complexity of the operation to recover the pilots could potentially dissuade Trump from any ground operation to take Kharg Island and sites in the Persian Gulf, or to seize highly enriched uranium buried deep underground in Iran.

Complex Operations and Iranian Capabilities

These operations—scoped by military planners and presented to the president as options—are deeply complex and risk exposing US forces to lingering Iranian capabilities, including difficult-to-find man portable air defense systems, known as Manpads, which are shoulder-launched weapons most effective against low-flying aircraft.

On the other hand, the fact that US troops were able to enter a contested environment and set up a forward airfield and refueling point under the nose of the Iranians—then hold it for hours while two stuck aircraft were destroyed and replacements sent—might embolden Trump. It could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran stands a good chance of success.

According to sources, Trump has sent mixed messages about the path forward. He told reporters in a series of phone calls on Sunday that he believes a ‘deal’ with Iran could be just around the corner. If that fails, he has said repeatedly on Truth Social, the clock is ticking on a self-imposed deadline to begin striking Iranian power plants and bridges.

Escalation and International Concerns

If the Strait of Hormuz was not opened, Trump posted in an expletive-laden message on Sunday to the Iranian regime, they would be ‘living in Hell.’ In a brief phone interview with Fox, Trump also suggested he might move to ‘take’ Iran’s oil, without providing further details.

An expanded campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent an escalation, with human rights groups warning of the impact on civilians and potential violations of international law. The president’s critics are likely to take it as a sign of Trump’s frustration that the US has been unable to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global corridor for oil and other commodities.

Trump’s comments over the weekend stand in contrast to several he made last week, including a televised address on 1 April, in which he suggested that the US had already created the conditions necessary for other countries to engage in the Strait. ‘Take it, protect it, use it for yourselves,’ he told allies.

Trump had also recently suggested that he was willing to ‘leave’ Iran even if a deal eluded him. But he now appears to have shifted course in the hopes that doubling down on the threat of devastating attacks on the country’s core infrastructure can prompt Tehran’s leadership to come to the table.