Failed Negotiations and New Threats

A diplomatic team led by Vice-President JD Vance attempted to negotiate an end to the US war with Iran on Saturday but failed to reach an agreement. As a result. Trump made a series of posts on Truth Social on Sunday morning, stating that the US will impose a naval blockade of Iran; he wrote, ‘No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.’

Trump also said that the US would continue clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage for allied shipping; he added that the US military is ‘locked and loaded’ and prepared to resume attacks against Iran at an ‘appropriate moment.’

According to a US official familiar with the negotiations, the discussions revealed a long list of disagreements, including Iran’s control of Hormuz and its support for regional proxies such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran did not meet the US demand to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

New Challenges and Uncertainties

Trump’s latest posts pose new challenges and risks for the US. Questions remain about whether mine-clearing activities will place American naval vessels at greater risk of Iranian attacks. How will the US determine who paid Iran a toll? Will the US use force on foreign-flagged ships that ignore the blockade? How will nations like China, which depend on Iranian oil, respond?

Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN on Sunday that he does not understand how blockading the strait will push Iran to open it. Republican congressman Mike Turner of Ohio said the blockade is intended to force a resolution to the situation in Hormuz. He added that the president’s statements are calling all allies to the table.

Escalation or De-escalation?

Last week, before Iran and the US agreed to a two-week ceasefire and face-to-face negotiations, Trump was in a difficult position. He could continue to ratchet up US attacks on Iran, potentially causing long-term damage to the nation’s civilian infrastructure, adding to a humanitarian crisis, and further destabilizing the global economy.

Alternatively, he could back away from a war that is unpopular among the American public and is beginning to frustrate some of his supporters. A new CBS poll suggests that 59% of Americans feel the war is going somewhat or very badly for the US. Many believe key US objectives, such as keeping open the Strait of Hormuz, securing greater freedom for the Iranian people, and ending Iran’s nuclear programme, remain unmet.

Despite American claims of victory, the predicaments facing the president have not changed. Talking to Fox News on Sunday morning, Trump said Iran would ultimately give the US ‘everything’ it wants. He added that oil prices might be the same or higher in the months ahead but believed the US economy would hold up.

On Saturday night, as his vice-president was negotiating with the Iranians in Pakistan, Trump traveled to Miami to watch UFC cage matches. Members of the press pool in attendance described the event as bizarre. Trump observed violent contests in a blood-spattered ring, chatted with celebrities, and engaged in discussions with his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and other advisers in full view of the thousands of attendees.

The conflict has stretched into its second month, and the current two-week ceasefire appears on the verge of collapse. The situation has become a test of wills – of Iran’s ability to endure continued US and Israel attacks versus Trump’s tolerance for the economic and political pain the war has produced.

The Iran war may never provide the clarity of a UFC match, which has set rules and time limits, and ends with a clear winner and a loser. In the end, all the participants in this fight might be diminished.