US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed during an interview with Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra that talks with Iran are ongoing, though primarily through intermediaries. He emphasized that the United States will not allow Iran to claim sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that the waterway will remain open regardless of Iran’s actions. The interview took place amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Rubio stating that the US military objectives could be achieved ‘in weeks, not months.’

Iran Must Abandon Nuclear and Missile Programs

Rubio said Iran must abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions and stop producing missiles and drones that can threaten countries across the Gulf region. He argued that the Iranian regime can never have nuclear weapons and that Iran could pursue civilian nuclear energy only if it does not allow rapid development into a nuclear weapon.

“They have to abandon all these weapon programmes and all their nuclear ambitions,” Rubio said. He added that the United States will continue its military campaign until Iran abandons its nuclear and missile programs.

However, Hassan Ahmadian, an assistant professor at the University of Tehran, questioned the narrative that Iran poses an offensive threat in the region. He asked, “When was the last time Iran attacked its neighbours over three centuries?” Ahmadian argued that Iran’s military strategy is shaped by deterrence in an asymmetric conflict and that the current situation is a temporary wartime measure.

Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Open

Rubio warned that the US would not accept Iran claiming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and that the waterway would remain open “one way or another.” He said that otherwise, Iran would “face real consequences” from the US and other countries. He also noted that it would set a dangerous precedent for nations to take over international waterways and claim them as their own.

Iranian analysts suggested that the closure of the strait is a temporary wartime measure and could be reversed once the conflict ends. Ahmadian said, “I think there is no Iranian interest to not open it beyond the war.” He explained that Iran is using this as an asymmetric way of putting pressure on the US, similar to how the US is bombing Iran, and that after the war, there would be an arrangement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to reopen the strait.

Rubio said the US military campaign is progressing quickly and outlined the military objectives Washington is trying to achieve. “Those objectives are the destruction of their air force, which has been achieved, the destruction of their navy, which has largely been achieved,” he said. He added that a significant reduction in the number of missile launchers is underway and that the US is working to destroy the factories that make those missiles and drones.

War Objectives Near Completion

Rubio said the US military campaign is progressing rapidly and that the war objectives will be achieved “in weeks, not months.” He stated, “We will achieve them in weeks, not months. That’s a matter of weeks. I’m not going to tell you exactly how many weeks, but a matter of weeks, not months.”

He also said the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is uncertain. “We don’t even know he’s in power. I know they say he’s in power. No one has seen him. No one has heard from him,” Rubio said. He added that it is very opaque right now and that it is not clear how decisions are being made inside of Iran.

The US secretary of state suggested that the US would welcome political change in Iran, though he said it was not the official objective of the military operation. “We would always welcome a scenario in which Iran was led by people that had a different view of the future,” Rubio said. “If that opportunity presents itself, we’re going to take it.” He added that the Iranian people “deserve better leadership” and indicated that Washington would not oppose a change in government if it occurred.

Analysts said Washington’s position on regime change appears to have shifted over time. Paul Musgrave, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that originally bringing down the government was the goal, but that has changed. “Now we have President Donald Trump on Truth Social saying he is negotiating with elements of what could become a new regime, so there is a lot of confusion here, but it is no longer the number one goal. It’s not something they are laying out,” he noted.

Rubio criticized some NATO allies for refusing US access to bases during the war and suggested that Washington may need to reassess the alliance after the war. “We have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of their bases,” he said. “And so you ask yourself, well, what is in it for the United States?”

Rubio warned that if NATO is just about the US defending Europe from attack, but those countries deny the US basing rights when needed, that’s not a very good arrangement. He also said Washington is closely watching developments in Cuba and Venezuela.

The interview with Al Jazeera comes as US President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric on social media, threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if a ceasefire is not reached soon. Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett reported from Washington that Rubio’s statements and Trump’s posts suggest the US is pursuing a dual-track approach: keeping diplomatic channels open through intermediaries while simultaneously increasing military and economic pressure on Iran.

The situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, with the potential for further escalation or de-escalation depending on the outcomes of the ongoing military campaign and diplomatic talks. The US military’s progress in achieving its objectives, combined with the uncertainty of Iran’s leadership and the potential for political change, will likely shape the next phase of the conflict.