Billions of meals are at risk due to the war in Iran, according to Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, a global leader in fertiliser production. The conflict has disrupted the supply of fertiliser and its key ingredients, threatening global food production.

Impact on Global Food Supply

Hostilities in the Gulf, which have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are jeopardising global food production; Holsether told the BBC that reduced crop yields due to lower fertiliser use could trigger a bidding war for food, disproportionately affecting the poorest countries.

Currently, up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser are not being produced globally because of the ongoing situation, according to Holsether — this shortage could result in up to 10 billion meals not being produced every week due to the lack of fertilisers.

Not applying nitrogen fertiliser could reduce crop yields by as much as 50% in the first season, Holsether said — the fertiliser market is highly globalised, with key destinations including Asia, South East Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These regions will likely see the most immediate impact.

Regional Vulnerabilities

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where under-fertilisation is already a problem, could face significant drops in crop yields. According to Holsether, these regions are particularly vulnerable to the current fertiliser shortage.

The consequences of fertiliser shortages in Asia will not appear in food prices until the end of the year. This is when harvests that should have been planted in spring come in smaller than expected or not at all, according to analysts.

Professor Paul Teng, a senior fellow in food security in Singapore, noted that some countries have enough fertiliser for the immediate planting season. However, if the crisis continues, impacts on crops such as rice could be seen in the coming months.

Farmers globally are facing a series of challenges. Prices for the food they produce have not yet risen to cover the higher costs they are experiencing. These include increased energy costs for diesel used in tractors and other inputs, as well as higher fertiliser prices.

Global Implications

Fertiliser prices have soared by 80% since the beginning of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. A continuation of the conflict could lead to a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations, according to Holsether.

He warned that in such a scenario, the most vulnerable people in developing nations would suffer the most. “Who are we buying the food away from?” he asked, noting that in a bidding war, developing nations often cannot afford to compete.

This situation has implications for food affordability, scarcity, and hunger. In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation recently forecast that food inflation could reach 10% by December. In Asia and the Pacific, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24%, the largest relative increase of any region.