The Bolsonaro family’s Liberal Party (PL) made sweeping gains in the first round, securing 19 Senate seats and becoming the second-largest bloc in the chamber. Fabio de Sa e Silva, a professor of Brazilian studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the big news was “a takeover that happened in Congress by the far-right.” The PL’s dominance in the Senate and state governor races signals a broader rightward shift in Brazil’s political landscape.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong performance was particularly notable in regions with high concentrations of evangelical voters, where he won 52% of valid votes. In contrast, Lula’s support among Brazil’s large Catholic population fell by 11 percentage points compared to previous elections. Political analyst Creomar de Souza said, “It will be tough for Lula to win. He is rowing from the back when he thought by now they would be winning by a small margin.”

Bolsonaro has already secured endorsements from right-wing rivals Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, both of whom ran in the first round but failed to advance. Caiado, who received 2.18% of valid votes, will formally endorse Bolsonaro on Tuesday. Zema, who got 0.27%, announced his support via social media. Bolsonaro’s team is now focusing on consolidating anti-PT (Workers’ Party) sentiment and appealing to the 40 million Brazilians who either abstained or cast blank or invalid ballots.

Lula’s campaign is in damage control mode, with party chairman Edinho Silva stating that the president will meet with campaign managers in Brasília to refine his message and reallocate resources to key battleground states. “Now it is mano a mano. We will show Brazilians that Flávio Bolsonaro is dangerous and will not run this country in a way they will see their lives improve,” Silva said.

Lula has criticized U.S. interference in Brazil’s elections and strengthened ties with Beijing, while Bolsonaro has aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump and his allies. Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the 2022 election. “They bring Bolsonaro into it, but really everyone’s involved,” said Tom Ferreira, a 35-year-old business administrator in Brasília.

Lula is seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, while Bolsonaro is running to continue the populist movement started by his father.