A new Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of South Dakota Republican primary voters shows Congressman Dusty Johnson leading the field in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, with 28% support. The survey, which included 413 voters, also found businessman Toby Doeden at 18%, Governor Larry Rhoden at 17%, and State Rep. Jon Hansen at 14%. Twenty-three percent of respondents remained undecided ahead of the June 2 primary.

Incumbent Governor Faces Tough Race

Gov. Rhoden, who took office after former Governor Kristi Noem was appointed to the Trump administration, currently holds a plurality of support for his job performance at 35%, but faces a competitive field in the primary. Johnson’s lead is particularly strong among younger voters, where he outpaces Rhoden by 23 points, and among women, where he holds a 14-point lead, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden faces a difficult election campaign as Rep. Dusty Johnson has garnered plurality support ahead of the June primary,” Kimball said. “Johnson’s support is highest among voters under 40, where he leads Rhoden by 23 points, and women, among whom he leads by 14 points.”

Primary Race Reflects Broader Political Landscape

The poll also revealed a majority of South Dakota voters—51%—support Attorney General Marty Jackley in the race for U.S. Congress, while 7% support former Governor James Bialota and 41% are undecided. Additionally, 55% of voters approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, a key factor in the state’s political climate.

When asked about their top issues, 35% of voters cited the economy, followed by 13% who mentioned either threats to democracy or housing affordability, 11% who focused on education, and 9% on healthcare. These findings highlight the diverse concerns shaping the state’s political landscape.

Public Opinion on Data Centers Divided

Just over half of the voters surveyed (51%) oppose the construction of data centers in or near their communities, while 30% support them. The debate over data centers has become increasingly relevant in South Dakota, where the industry has been expanding due to the state’s favorable business environment and infrastructure.

The June primary is a key moment in South Dakota’s political calendar, with the winner likely to face a general election challenge. The current polling suggests that the race is wide open, with multiple candidates vying for the nomination. The results could have implications for the state’s direction in key policy areas, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

With less than two months until the primary, the candidates are expected to ramp up their campaigns, focusing on key issues and voter demographics. Johnson’s strong showing among younger and female voters could be a decisive factor in the race, particularly in a state where the Republican base is often seen as more conservative and older.

Analysts suggest that the primary will be closely watched by national observers, given the state’s influence in the broader Republican Party and its role in the 2024 presidential election. The outcome could also impact the balance of power in the state legislature and the governor’s office.

As the primary approaches, the candidates will need to address the concerns of undecided voters and solidify their support among key demographics. With the current polling showing a tight race, the coming weeks will be critical in determining who will represent the Republican Party in the general election.