Turkey hosts the Incirlik air base, one of the largest and most strategically important US military installations in the Middle East. Despite Iran’s recent threats to strike US bases in neighboring countries in response to the ongoing war with Israel, Ankara has not been targeted. This decision, experts say, reflects a combination of geopolitical strategy, military considerations, and regional diplomacy.

Strategic Calculations and NATO Membership

The Incirlik base is a key hub for US military operations in the region and houses strategic weapons. It is also within range of Iranian missiles that have already reached Israel and even Cyprus. Analysts suggest that Iran’s decision to avoid targeting Turkish soil may be due to Turkey’s NATO membership. An attack on Turkey would be seen as an attack on the entire alliance, potentially drawing in other NATO members and expanding the conflict.

According to Ismail Coktan, a journalist specializing in international affairs, ‘Turkey is a NATO member, and any attack on its territory would be interpreted as an attack on the alliance.’ This factor, he argues, is a critical deterrent for Iran.

Regional Diplomacy and Neutrality

Turkey has maintained a neutral stance in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. Unlike Oman, which has been subjected to Iranian missile strikes despite playing a mediating role, Turkey has avoided direct involvement in the war. This neutrality, experts say, has allowed Ankara to position itself as a potential mediator in the crisis.

Bulent Sahin Erdir, a journalist specializing in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs, noted that Turkey has ‘followed a consistent policy for years and, as a NATO member, seeks to mediate between the Western bloc and the Iranian regime.’ He added that Turkey has ‘not allowed the use of its bases or airspace in attacks against Iran,’ which may have further discouraged Iran from targeting the country.

Turkey’s diplomatic efforts have included high-level talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have been actively engaged in efforts to broker a ceasefire, fearing that further escalation could strain the country after years of conflict in neighboring regions.

Military Strength and Economic Constraints

Turkey’s military strength and large population are also factors in Iran’s calculations. Coktan emphasized that ‘Turkey possesses a strong army and is also a large country in terms of population and territory.’ Additionally, the country’s economic situation, already strained by the influx of Syrian refugees, may have made it less attractive as a target for Iran.

Erdir pointed out that ‘if a similar influx of migrants occurs from Iran, temporary shelters would be established in eastern Turkey.’ However, ‘Turkey’s deteriorating economic situation makes it unable to absorb another wave of migrants after the Syrians,’ which may have led the government to take measures to prevent such a scenario.

Despite these strategic considerations, Iran has not ruled out the possibility of future attacks on US bases in Turkey. The situation remains fluid, and experts warn that the conflict could evolve in unpredictable ways.

The decision to avoid targeting Turkish bases may also be linked to the recent absence of US military forces at Incirlik. Coktan noted that ‘the Americans did not send any military forces to the base during the recent period that witnessed significant military mobilisation in the region against Iran.’

Turkey’s role as a potential mediator and its efforts to prevent further escalation have been central to its foreign policy in recent months. Despite Iran’s rejection of Ankara’s mediation attempts, Turkey continues to push for dialogue and de-escalation.

As the conflict between Iran and Israel continues, the question of whether Turkey will remain a neutral actor or be drawn into the fray remains open. The region’s stability depends on the outcome of these diplomatic efforts and the decisions made by all parties involved.