Iran has continued to export oil at a significant rate despite the ongoing conflict and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime and trade data platforms. Over 90 ships, including oil tankers, have crossed the strait since the war began, and the country has exported more than 16 million barrels of crude oil since early March, according to trade data analytics firm Kpler.

Dark Ship Transits and Diplomatic Negotiations

Many of the vessels that passed through the strait were classified as ‘dark’ transits, meaning they evaded Western government sanctions and oversight. These ships are believed to have ties to Iran, according to maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence. In recent weeks, vessels with connections to India and Pakistan have also successfully crossed the strait, following increased diplomatic efforts between the countries and Iran.

India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, confirmed in an interview with the Financial Times that two of his country’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, the Shivalik and Nanda Devi, were able to pass through the strait after negotiations with Iran. The two vessels, owned by the state-run Shipping Corp. of India, traveled through the strait around March 13 or 14, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Similarly, the Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker Karachi, controlled by the Pakistan National Shipping Corp., passed through the strait on Sunday, according to the same firm. Shariq Amin, a spokesman at the Pakistan Port Trust, declined to confirm the exact route the ship took but stated that it would soon reach Pakistan safely.

Strategic Control and Selective Closure

Despite the war and the closure of the strait, Iran has maintained control over its primary export artery. According to Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic, there has been ‘continued resilience’ in Iran’s oil export volumes. Analysts suggest that Iran has preserved its export capabilities by selectively allowing some non-Iranian ships to pass through the strait, particularly those with ties to countries in diplomatic talks with Iran.

Kun Cao, a client director at consulting firm Reddal, noted that Iran has managed to ‘preserve its own export artery’ by controlling the chokepoint of the strait. He added that the data on Iran’s oil exports aligns closely with maritime traffic data, indicating a well-organized system of export operations.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported that between March 1 and 15, at least 89 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, including 16 oil tankers. This number is significantly lower than the 100 to 135 vessel passages per day recorded before the war began. More than one-fifth of the 89 vessels were believed to be affiliated with Iran, while others were linked to China and Greece.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, said that vessels are transiting through the strait with ‘at least some level of diplomatic intervention.’ He added that Iran may have ‘effectively created a safe corridor’ for certain ships, allowing them to pass close to the Iranian coast.

Oil Prices and Diplomatic Tensions

Crude oil prices have surged more than 40% since the start of the conflict, reaching above $100 per barrel. Iran has threatened to block the passage of oil destined for the U.S., Israel, and their allies through the strait. In response, the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil tankers to cross the strait to maintain global oil supply.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with CNBC that the U.S. had allowed Iranian oil tankers to cross the strait to ensure the rest of the world could still be supplied. However, the U.S. has also bombed military sites on Kharg Island, a key location for Iran’s oil network, though President Donald Trump has stated that he has left Iran’s oil infrastructure untouched for now.

Kun Cao, from Reddal, noted that the latest passages through the Strait of Hormuz suggest that the strait was not simply ‘closed’ but rather ‘closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements.’

Dutch bank ING’s strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a research note that if Iran’s strategy is to ‘inflict pain through higher energy prices,’ the number of tankers it allows through the strait may be very limited. This could further drive up oil prices and create economic strain on countries reliant on oil imports.

With China emerging as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, due to Western sanctions and the risks associated with trade, the geopolitical dynamics of the region continue to shift. China’s closer ties with Iran have also allowed some of its ships to transit through the strait with reduced risk of being attacked, according to analysts.

As the situation evolves, the continued movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the complex interplay between military conflict, economic interests, and diplomatic negotiations. The strait remains a focal point in the global energy market, with its strategic importance underscored by the ongoing tensions in the region.