U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has issued a stark warning about Pakistan’s missile development, stating that the country’s advancing ballistic missile program could eventually place the United States within range. Gabbard raised the concern during her presentation of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, where she outlined a series of emerging threats to U.S. national security.

Emerging Strategic Threats from Multiple Countries

Gabbard emphasized that China and Russia are actively developing advanced missile delivery systems designed to bypass U.S. missile defenses. Meanwhile, North Korea already possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the United States and continues to expand its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan, too, is advancing its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, which could one day evolve into ICBMs capable of striking the American homeland.

“The IC assesses that China and Russia are developing advanced delivery systems meant to be capable of penetrating or bypassing U.S. missile defenses,” Gabbard said. “North Korea’s ICBMs can already reach U.S. soil, and it is committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the Homeland.”

The 34-page intelligence community report highlights that Pakistan has been steadily improving its missile technology, which provides its military with the means to develop systems that can strike targets beyond South Asia. The report warns that, if these trends continue, Pakistan could develop ICBMs that would pose a direct threat to the United States.

Regional Tensions and Nuclear Risks

South Asia remains a focal point of U.S. security concerns, particularly due to the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed nations have a history of conflict, and past incidents have raised the risk of nuclear escalation. The report cited the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, as a recent example of how such incidents can trigger broader regional instability.

“The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict,” the report stated. “President Trump’s intervention deescalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict, but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises.”

Despite these risks, Gabbard noted that the U.S. secure nuclear deterrent continues to protect the homeland from strategic threats. However, the report warned that Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are all researching and developing a range of advanced missile delivery systems that could place the United States within range. These systems include both nuclear and conventional payloads.

“The IC assesses that threats to the Homeland will expand collectively to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, from the current assessed figure of more than 3,000 missiles,” Gabbard said. This projection highlights the growing number of potential missile threats to the U.S. homeland over the next decade.

Pakistan-Taliban Tensions and Border Conflicts

The report also detailed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban, which have led to intermittent cross-border clashes. Islamabad has grown increasingly frustrated with anti-Pakistani terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan and has faced rising levels of terrorist violence at home. On February 26, the Afghan Taliban launched attacks against Pakistani military positions along the border, claiming it as retaliation for prior airstrikes by Pakistan.

Pakistan responded swiftly, launching airstrikes against Afghan border provinces and the capital, Kabul—the first time Pakistan has targeted urban centers in Afghanistan. The conflict has continued since its outbreak, with neither side showing signs of de-escalation.

“Pakistan’s army chief warned this month that lasting peace requires the Taliban to sever ties with militants targeting Pakistan,” the report said. “The Taliban’s public posture has been to call for dialogue, but it has denied harboring anti-Pakistani militants.”

These developments have raised concerns about the potential for further regional instability, particularly with regard to Pakistan’s missile capabilities. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation, noting that Pakistan’s missile program has been expanding for years, with the development of systems such as the Shaheen-III and Ghauri-III, which have ranges that already reach parts of the Middle East and potentially beyond.

Experts warn that if Pakistan continues to advance its missile technology, the U.S. could face a new and significant strategic threat. “The potential for Pakistan’s missile systems to reach the United States is not just a hypothetical concern—it is a real and growing risk,” said one defense analyst. “The U.S. must prepare for the possibility that Pakistan could one day pose a direct missile threat to the homeland.”

The U.S. intelligence community is now advising policymakers to take a more proactive stance in addressing these emerging threats. This includes increased investment in missile defense systems, greater diplomatic engagement with regional powers, and enhanced intelligence-gathering efforts to monitor the development of advanced missile technologies.

What’s next for the U.S. and its allies? The report suggests that the coming years will be critical in shaping the global missile landscape. With the threat of more than 16,000 missiles targeting the U.S. homeland by 2035, the need for strategic planning and international cooperation has never been more urgent.