Picton County has taken a significant step in addressing climate change with the release of a landmark report analyzing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the region. The report, presented to the Committee of the Whole on February 12, outlines the county’s current emissions profile and proposes a detailed framework for reducing them. Angus Ross and Don Wilford, the report’s authors, emphasized the urgent need for action, citing a global temperature increase that has already exceeded the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

Current Emissions and Projections

The report highlights that fossil fuels still account for roughly three-quarters of Canada’s total primary energy consumption, a figure that has only slightly decreased since 2000. Using 2019 as a baseline, the analysis draws data from Hydro One, Enbridge, MPAC, the Ontario Ministry of Transportation, and Statistics Canada. It breaks down the county’s GHG emissions into four sectors: buildings, transportation, agriculture, and solid waste.

Without mitigation efforts, projected population growth is expected to exacerbate emissions from construction and transportation, which are currently the two largest contributors. According to Wilford, building 1,000 homes using traditional methods would increase GHG emissions by 3.7 kilotonnes and require 12 gigawatt hours of electricity. However, electrifying heating and cooling systems and adopting electric vehicles could reduce that number to 0.4 kilotonnes per 1,000 homes.

“If new development was green and did not produce greenhouse gases, that would be the good thing to do because the easiest emissions to reduce are the ones that you don’t produce in the first place,” Wilford said.

Data Gaps and Key Challenges

The report also highlights significant data gaps, particularly in the areas of propane, heating oil, heat pumps, and geothermal energy. These data are not collected at the provincial level, making it difficult to assess their impact on emissions. Additionally, there is no available data on annual fuel sales in the county, which could provide insight into the contribution of tourism to GHG emissions.

“We know that we get a million visitors a year coming in. We don’t know how much fuel they purchase,” said Ross. “Fuel sales are a real indicator of GHGs that are being emitted in the County.”

In the agricultural sector, the report notes that farmers have adopted low-emission practices, such as using coated nitrogen fertilizer to prevent nitrogen emissions. However, there is no detailed data on the county’s largest emitter, Heidelberg Materials, a cement plant that produces more than twice the combined amount of community emissions annually. The plant is regulated by the provincial and federal governments, making it outside the jurisdiction of the county.

Heidelberg has committed to reducing its carbon emissions in Picton by 25 to 30 percent by 2030, aligning with low-carbon practices at its other plants worldwide. The company has already achieved 98 percent low-carbon fuel usage at its UK plant and is converting sewage sludge into low-carbon fuel in Germany. A plant in Edmonton has significantly reduced its GHGs, and Heidelberg plans to implement similar measures in Picton.

Climate Impacts and Policy Recommendations

Ross and Wilford emphasized that the impacts of climate change are already being felt, with longer droughts, increased vector-borne diseases, and prolonged periods of extreme heat. The drought of 2025 was cited as a sign of what’s to come. Insurance premiums are also rising annually due to increased damage, which will be borne by both municipalities and residents.

“Providers calculate costs by mapping peril by peril: flood, hail, wildfire; they overlay the maps and an additional charge goes with each,” Ross said. “When I started in the industry and for decades afterwards, the major peril was fire. It’s now water.”

The report’s primary recommendation is the creation of a mitigation and adaptation framework, accompanied by policy direction in the Official Plan. This framework must include emission reduction targets and implementation timelines. It also suggests introducing a climate lens to all staff reports, projects, and budgets to assess the climate impacts of every municipal initiative.

The report encourages the municipality to coordinate nationally with the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and locally with conservation authorities and Southeast Public Health. It also proposes integrating development planning with energy planning, emphasizing that emissions and energy are closely linked.

The detailed data in the report has been praised by Council as a guiding document for setting attainable goals. “We now have a baseline of emission statistics, so that three years from now, five years from now, ten years from now, we can re-measure and see where we’re at,” said Councillor John Hirsch. “You’ve changed my mind on a number of things, simply because you’ve produced the facts, the data,” added Councillor Phil St-Jean.