Republican leaders, including former President Donald Trump, are rethinking their campaign strategy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to sources familiar with the discussions. With the House of Representatives at stake, the party is moving away from its 2024 campaign messaging that emphasized mass deportations and instead focusing on the Democratic Party’s record under President Joe Biden.

Shift in GOP Messaging

At the recent House Republican retreat in Doral, Florida, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair advised lawmakers to stop emphasizing mass deportations, a central theme of the GOP’s 2024 campaign. Instead, Blair encouraged lawmakers to focus on deporting violent offenders, a more targeted approach.

The shift in messaging comes as Republicans face a tough political landscape. With 52% of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably, the GOP is attempting to use Biden’s policies on crime, cashless bail, and open borders to sway voters.

Blair’s comments were made during a closed-door panel that included Chris LaCivita, Trump’s 2024 co-campaign manager, and Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC associated with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). The panel was led by National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson.

Focus on Organization and Funding

The panelists emphasized the GOP’s unprecedented financial advantage in this election cycle. With a small map of competitive districts, the party with stronger organization and clearer lines of control is expected to have the edge, according to the discussions.

Blair also reminded lawmakers of how Trump won in 2024, urging them to challenge conventional wisdom and avoid feeding into Democratic talking points. This strategy is aimed at maintaining a unified message and avoiding internal divisions.

The GOP’s strategy is being tested against historical trends. Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump’s first midterm, and in 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats after President Barack Obama’s election. These historical precedents suggest that the party in power often faces significant losses in midterms.

Record Departures and Trump’s Influence

Both parties are experiencing a record number of lawmakers leaving Congress. As of now, 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats plan to leave the House at the end of this Congress, a trend that historically correlates with seat losses.

Trump’s influence on the GOP remains a double-edged sword. While he remains a polarizing figure, his favorability rating is in the low 40s, which could be a liability in certain districts. The party is trying to balance his appeal with a more moderate message to attract broader support.

Despite the challenges, the GOP is confident in its ability to retain the House. The party’s financial strength, organizational advantage, and focus on Democratic policies are seen as key factors in their strategy moving forward.

As the 2026 midterms approach, the GOP’s strategy will be closely watched by analysts and voters alike. With the stakes high, the party is determined to buck historical trends and maintain its majority in the House.