The Trump administration is reportedly considering occupying or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to four sources with knowledge of the issue who spoke to Axios. The island, located 15 miles offshore and responsible for processing 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, is a strategic target for the U.S. as global energy prices surge and the administration seeks to resolve the ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Strategic Calculations and Military Preparations

According to sources, the operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. A senior administration official told Axios that the U.S. needs approximately a month to weaken Iran’s defenses through targeted strikes before considering an invasion of the island. This would allow the administration to “get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.”

Such an operation, if approved, would require additional troop deployments. Three different Marine units are currently en route to the region, and the White House and Pentagon are considering sending even more troops in the near future, a U.S. official said. The administration has been preparing for this contingency for some time, with officials noting that boots on the ground have always been a part of military operations under every president, including Trump.

Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery warned that a potential occupation of Kharg Island could expose U.S. troops to unnecessary risk, given the uncertain strategic benefits. He noted that if the island were seized, Iran would likely shut off the oil spigot on the other end, and the U.S. would not control Iran’s oil production. Montgomery suggested that a more likely scenario is for the U.S. to send destroyers and aircraft into the strait to escort tankers, eliminating the need for an invasion.

Despite these concerns, the administration has not ruled out a ground invasion. A senior administration official stated, “He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen.” However, the decision has not yet been finalized.

Political and Diplomatic Considerations

Republican U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Trump has been “prudent” not to rule out a ground invasion, though he has not publicly endorsed the move. Cotton described Iran’s closure of the strait as an act of desperation and noted that Trump has “mountains of plans” for such contingencies.

Meanwhile, the White House is weighing a variety of options, including a naval blockade to prevent tankers from reaching the island. Pentagon lawyers have been consulted on the legality of such measures, a source said. The administration is also considering additional military operations beyond the island, including potential evacuations of U.S. staff from embassies in the region.

As part of these preparations, the U.S. military conducted massive airstrikes on Kharg Island last Friday, targeting dozens of military installations. U.S. officials described the attack as a “shot across the bow” to pressure Iran into reopening the strait, while also laying the groundwork for a potential ground operation. Trump himself has stated that the island is “so totally unprotected” and that the U.S. could take it “anytime we want.”

Impact on Global Energy Markets and Diplomacy

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has had significant implications for global energy markets, with oil prices rising sharply in response to the uncertainty. The closure of the strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, has disrupted global shipping routes and raised concerns about a potential escalation in the region.

Trump had originally hoped to end the crisis before his planned trip to China at the end of March. However, the ongoing tensions have forced him to delay the trip and continue military operations longer than initially planned, according to sources. The administration’s focus on resolving the strait issue has also shifted diplomatic priorities, with fewer resources being allocated to other international engagements.

Historical Context and Future Implications

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not new. The region has been a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions for decades, with past incidents involving U.S. military operations and Iran’s naval activities. The current crisis, however, is the most severe in recent years, with the potential for an escalation that could draw in other regional powers.

Experts warn that any military action in the region carries significant risks, including the potential for a broader conflict involving other Middle Eastern countries or even global powers. The U.S. military is currently evaluating the most effective course of action, balancing the need to protect global energy supplies with the risks of direct military confrontation.

As the administration continues to weigh its options, the international community is closely watching the situation. The outcome of the crisis will have lasting implications for U.S. foreign policy, regional stability, and global energy markets. For now, the U.S. remains focused on maintaining pressure on Iran while seeking a diplomatic resolution that aligns with its strategic goals.