Iran’s renewed threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and Israel’s military actions in Lebanon are complicating U.S.-Iran diplomacy, analysts warn. The Trump administration brokered a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in October 2025 to ease tensions, but progress appears stalled. Jeremy Scahill, co-founder of Drop Site News, argues that chances are ‘very, very slim’ for the talks to evolve into a thorough agreement.

Failed Enforcement Undermines Trust

Scahill pointed to the failure of the Trump-brokered Gaza ceasefire as a reason for Iranian skepticism. ‘If the White House hasn’t been able to force Israel to abide by the minimal set of agreements,’ Scahill told host Steve Clemons, ‘Iranian leaders are sceptical about progress in their talks as well.’ The failure to enforce existing agreements undermines confidence in the U.S.’s ability to secure broader peace.

Former U.S. Ambassador Emmanuel Macron echoed these sentiments, criticizing Trump’s approach. ‘The president is obsessed with writing a book on the art of the deal, but now he got schooled,’ Macron said, using the phrase ‘got schooled’ to describe the perceived failure of U.S. diplomacy. Macron also coined the term ‘memorandum of misunderstanding’ (MOM) to describe the current situation, suggesting that the MOU contains more confusion than clarity.

Strait of Hormuz as Strategic Weapon

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has become a strategic tool for Iran. On October 20, 2025, the Iranian Major Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the strait in response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, a Lebanese group with ties to Iran. While the U.S. Central Command clarified that the strait remains open, the announcement is seen as a deliberate move to tap into negotiations.

Iran has also established a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority, requiring ships to register 48 hours in advance, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). This move, which includes a 60-day toll exemption, signals Iran’s desire to assert control over the strait’s future management. ‘This is not just a closure threat but a broader attempt to gain use in future negotiations,’ WSJ reported.

Bloomberg News cited Martin Kelly, senior advisor at EOS Risk Group, who predicted that such closure threats would likely continue. ‘The next few days or weeks will be central,’ Kelly said, as Iran uses the strait as a bargaining chip to enforce a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Lebanon as a Flashpoint

U.S. officials and media have highlighted Lebanon as a critical test for the MOU. The agreement includes a provision for an immediate halt of military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon. However, neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed the agreement, creating enforcement challenges. According to the New York Times (NYT), the Lebanon conflict is now one of the main obstacles to ending the broader conflict.

Iran is pushing for the U.S. to enforce the MOU’s military ceasefire provisions before moving to nuclear negotiations. This approach has led to uncertainty about the talks’ success. ‘The current stalemate in Lebanon is testing the durability of the agreement,’ the NYT noted. The U.S. and Iran are now in a technical negotiation phase in Switzerland, but progress remains uncertain.

Manuel Macron, a potential Democratic candidate for the U.S. presidency, called the situation ‘the worst single incident of national security chaos’ he has witnessed. He criticized Trump’s handling of the crisis and suggested that the MOU lacks the structure to address complex regional conflicts.