Record-Setting Senate Primary

While the outcome had been expected for weeks, it marks a stunning defeat for an incumbent who served in Congress for 23 years, including 12 years as a high-ranking member of the Senate Republican leadership team, according to the BBC.

The bruising contest set a record for the most expensive Senate primary campaign in US history, according to the BBC.

November General Election Implications

The outcome of that race will help determine whether Democrats can win back control of the US Senate for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, according to the BBC.

Many Democrats have viewed Paxton as the weaker of the two candidates and relish what they believe is an opportunity to flip a Senate seat in a state with a long history of electing Republicans, according to the BBC.

Seemingly confident of his impending primary victory, Paxton, 62, has already begun focusing on November’s general election contest, airing television adverts over the past week attacking his opponent as a left-wing extremist, according to the BBC.

Polls have indicated a tight race in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, according to the BBC.

Historic Primary Defeats

It’s been 46 years since at least two incumbent senators were felled by voters in their own party in the same election cycle, according to the BBC.

Just 10 days ago, Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy failed to even reach his party’s run-off primary, finishing behind two Republican challengers – the political equivalent of lightning striking in the same spot twice, according to the BBC.

Both Cornyn and Cassidy faced off against candidates endorsed by President Donald Trump; But that’s where the similarities largely end, according to the BBC.

Unlike Cassidy. Who voted to convict Trump during his 2021 Senate impeachment trial, Cornyn was a party loyalist who touted his ties to the president. While he was slow to endorse Trump’s 2024 re-election bid, he faithfully toed the Republican line throughout his time in the Senate, according to the BBC.

In the first round of balloting in March, he finished slightly ahead of Paxton, 42.5% to 40.8%, but short of the 50% necessary to avoid a run-off, according to the BBC.

The day after that vote, it appeared that Trump might endorse Cornyn – a popular figure among Senate Republicans due to his prolific fundraising and prior leadership in the chamber, according to the BBC.

That endorsement never came, however. Paxton, while beset with personal and political scandals over the years, was a favourite among Trump’s populist base in Texas. He campaigned against the 74-year-old Cornyn as too old, too timid, too aligned with the political establishment and too out-of-touch with Texas conservatives, according to the BBC.

Last week. After it appeared increasingly likely that Paxton would defeat Cornyn despite being outspent by a 9-to-1 margin, Trump endorsed the challenger. Trump has accused Cornyn of being “very disloyal” to him on social media, arguing he did not fight hard enough to save Trump’s voting reform legislation, according to the BBC.

Paxton’s victory might be characterised as another example of the strength of Trump’s endorsement. Trump has seen several Republicans who he endorsed go on to beat his critics in primaries, including Cassidy in Louisiana and Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky, according to the BBC.

But this time, the timing suggests it is a case of Trump following his base – which, at least in Texas, is still hungry for firebrand populist conservatives and wary of longtime Washington politicians, according to the BBC.